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Forecast tables for 2022–2025 (December 2022)

The energy crisis will push the Finnish economy into a mild recession in 2023, but this will be short-lived. Energy prices will gradually fall, and in 2024 the economy will return to growth. In the country’s public finances, spending will continue to exceed revenues.

1.BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND AT REFERENCE YEAR 2015 PRICES
% change on previous year
2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
GDP at market prices 3.0 1.9 -0.5 1.1 1.5
Imports of goods and services 6.0 8.6 -1.0 1.3 3.8
Exports of goods and services 5.4 1.7 1.8 2.8 3.1
Private consumption 3.7 2.4 -1.3 0.4 1.1
Public consumption 2.9 2.7 0.7 0.6 0.5
Private fixed investment 4.7 4.7 -2.0 -0.1 1.7
Public fixed investment -11.5 7.2 2.4 2.5 14.7
F=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
GDP, % change 3.0 1.9 -0.5 1.1 1.5
Net exports -0.2 -2.7 1.3 0.7 -0.3
Domestic demand excl. inventory change 2.9 3.1 -0.8 0.4 1.6
of which Consumption 2.6 1.9 -0.5 0.4 0.7
Investment 0.4 1.2 -0.3 0.1 1.0
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.3 1.5 -1.0 0.0 0.1
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights.
F=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRICE DEFLATORS
Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year
2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
GDP at market prices 108.7 115.0 120.5 123.3 125.6
2.5 5.8 4.8 2.4 1.8
Imports of goods and services 108.9 130.7 133.4 130.9 133.0
9.4 20.0 2.0 -1.8 1.6
Exports of goods and services 110.0 134.4 138.1 137.2 138.7
9.9 22.2 2.8 -0.7 1.1
Private consumption 105.8 111.6 117.3 119.4 121.7
1.7 5.5 5.1 1.8 1.9
Public consumption 109.7 112.2 116.9 120.2 123.1
3.3 2.3 4.2 2.8 2.5
Private fixed investment 113.5 119.2 123.2 124.8 127.5
2.2 5.0 3.4 1.3 2.1
Public fixed investment 110.9 116.5 119.1 120.7 122.8
3.1 5.1 2.2 1.4 1.8
Terms of trade (goods and services) 101.0 102.8 103.6 104.8 104.3
0.5 1.8 0.8 1.1 -0.5
F=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
EUR million and % change on previous year
2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
GDP at market prices 251,367 270,933 282,437 292,448 302,209
5.6 7.8 4.2 3.5 3.3
Imports of goods and services 98,505 128,348 129,686 128,945 135,927
15.9 30.3 1.0 -0.6 5.4
Total supply 349,872 399,281 412,123 421,393 438,136
8.3 14.1 3.2 2.2 4.0
Exports of goods and services 99,081 123,132 128,934 131,653 137,239
15.9 24.3 4.7 2.1 4.2
Consumption 189,543 202,904 211,333 216,784 223,345
5.7 7.0 4.2 2.6 3.0
Private 128,190 138,438 143,690 146,811 151,257
5.4 8.0 3.8 2.2 3.0
Public 61,353 64,466 67,643 69,973 72,088
6.3 5.1 4.9 3.4 3.0
Fixed investment 59,450 65,624 66,889 68,004 72,310
3.8 10.4 1.9 1.7 6.3
Private 48,924 53,769 54,479 55,116 57,261
7.0 9.9 1.3 1.2 3.9
Public 10,526 11,855 12,409 12,888 15,049
-8.7 12.6 4.7 3.9 16.8
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 1,798 7,621 4,967 4,953 5,242
% of previous year's total demand 0.2 1.7 -0.7 -0.0 0.1
Total demand 349,872 399,281 412,123 421,393 438,136
8.3 14.1 3.2 2.2 4.0
Total domestic demand 250,791 276,149 283,189 289,740 300,897
5.6 10.1 2.5 2.3 3.9
F=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
% in proportion to GDP at current prices
2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 39.2 47.4 45.9 44.1 45.0
Exports of goods and services 39.4 45.4 45.7 45.0 45.4
Consumption 75.4 74.9 74.8 74.1 73.9
Private 51.0 51.1 50.9 50.2 50.1
Public 24.4 23.8 23.9 23.9 23.9
Fixed investment 23.7 24.2 23.7 23.3 23.9
Private 19.5 19.8 19.3 18.8 18.9
Public 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 5.0
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy, 0.7 2.8 1.8 1.7 1.7
Total demand 139.2 147.4 145.9 144.1 145.0
Total domestic demand 99.8 101.9 100.3 99.1 99.6
F=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
6. PRICES
Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year
2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2005=100 106.1 113.8 119.5 121.3 123.3
2.1 7.2 5.0 1.6 1.7
Consumer price index, 2005=100 105.8 113.4 119.6 121.6 123.5
2.2 7.1 5.5 1.7 1.6
Private consumption deflator 105.8 111.6 117.3 119.4 121.7
1.7 5.5 5.1 1.8 1.9
Private investment deflator 113.5 119.2 123.2 124.8 127.5
2.2 5.0 3.4 1.3 2.1
Exports of goods and services deflator 110.0 134.4 138.1 137.2 138.7
9.9 22.2 2.8 -0.7 1.1
Imports of goods and services deflator 108.9 130.7 133.4 130.9 133.0
9.4 20.0 2.0 -1.8 1.6
Value-added deflators
Value-added, gross at basic prices 108.9 115.5 121.2 124.0 126.3
2.4 6.1 4.9 2.4 1.8
F=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
% change on previous year
2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
Whole economy
Index of wage and salary earnings 2.4 2.6 4.3 3.5 3.0
Compensation per employee 2.9 3.7 5.5 3.8 3.2
Unit labour costs 2.5 4.4 5.8 2.9 2.0
Labour productivity per employed person 0.4 -0.7 -0.3 0.9 1.1
F=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
8. LABOUR MARKET
1,000 persons and % change on previous year
2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)
Employed persons 2,548 2,614 2,609 2,616 2,625
2.6 2.6 -0.2 0.3 0.3
Unemployed persons 210 193 208 204 201
1.9 -9.0 7.8 -1.7 -1.5
Labour force 2,759 2,807 2,817 2,820 2,826
2.5 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.2
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,417 3,420 3,420 3,419 3,418
-0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.0 -0.0
Labour force participation rate, % 67 68 69 69 69
Unemployment rate, % 7.6 6.9 7.4 7.2 7.1
Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 72.1 73.7 73.6 73.8 74.1
F=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURE, BALANCE AND DEBT
2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
% relative to GDP
General government revenue 52.7 52.5 52.4 52.2 51.9
General government expenditure 55.4 53.4 54.2 54.2 54.5
General government primary expenditure 54.9 52.8 53.4 53.3 53.5
General government interest expenditure 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1
General government net lending -2.7 -0.9 -1.8 -2.0 -2.6
Central government -3.3 -1.8 -2.2 -2.2 -2.8
Local government -0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1
Social security funds 0.8 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.2
General government primary balance -2.2 -0.4 -1.1 -1.1 -1.6
General government structural balance¹ -2.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -2.3
General government debt (EDP) 72.4 72.2 71.9 73.2 74.9
Central government debt 51.2 52.2 52.3 53.4 54.7
Tax ratio 43.0 42.7 42.4 42.3 42.1
Current prices, EUR billion
General government net lending -6.8 -2.5 -5.1 -5.9 -7.9
Central government -8.2 -5.0 -6.1 -6.4 -8.3
Local government -0.5 -1.2 -1.9 -2.6 -3.2
Social security funds 2.0 3.6 2.9 3.1 3.7
General government debt (EDP) 181.9 195.7 203.1 214.0 226.2
1Based on the cyclical adjustment method used by the European System of Central Banks.
F=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
EUR billion
2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 99.1 123.1 128.9 131.7 137.2
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 98.5 128.3 129.7 128.9 135.9
Goods and services account (SNA) 0.6 -5.2 -0.8 2.7 1.3
% to GDP 0.2 -1.9 -0.3 0.9 0.4
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 4.0 -2.3 0.9 0.9 0.9
Current transfers, net -3.0 -2.5 -2.3 -2.4 -2.7
Current account, net 1.6 -10.0 -2.1 1.1 -0.5
Net lending, % to GDP
Private sector 3.3 -2.8 1.2 2.6 2.5
Public sector -2.7 -0.9 -2.0 -2.2 -2.7
Current account, % to GDP 0.6 -3.7 -0.8 0.4 -0.2
F=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
11. INTEREST RATES
%
2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
3-month Euribor1 -0.5 0.4 2.9 2.7 2.5
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 -0.1 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.9
1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
F=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
The Eurosystem staff projections
2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
GDP, % change on previous year
World (excl. euro area) 6.4 3.3 2.6 3.1 3.3
USA 5.9 1.9 0.6 0.9 1.8
Euro area 5.2 3.4 0.5 1.9 1.8
Japan 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
Imports, % change on previous year
World (excl. euro area) 12.6 5.6 1.9 3.3 3.3
USA 14.1 8.2 -1.1 2.4 2.9
Euro area 8.2 7.9 3.1 3.3 3.4
Japan 5.1 7.6 3.3 2.4 2.4
Index, 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year
Import volume in Finnish export markets 117.2 123.7 125.8 129.7 133.9
10.4 5.6 1.7 3.1 3.3
Export prices of Finland's trading partners, national currencies 116.6 136.3 141.3 144.3 147.2
10.6 16.9 3.7 2.1 2.0
Export prices of Finland's trading partners, in euro 106.6 128.0 132.4 135.1 137.8
9.9 20.0 3.4 2.1 2.0
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 152.9 162.7 145.2 146.1 148.2
42.1 6.4 -10.8 0.7 1.4
Oil price, USD per barrel1 71.1 104.6 86.4 79.7 76.0
71.3 47.1 -17.4 -7.7 -4.7
Finland's nominal exchange rate 2 91.4 93.9 93.6 93.6 93.6
-0.7 2.7 -0.3 -0.0 -0.0
US dollar value of one euro3 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
-3.5 12.6 2.1 0.0 0.0
1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2 Broad nominal effective exchange rate, January – March 2015 = 100. The index rises as the currency depreciates. Assuming no changes in the exchange rate.
3 Assuming no changes in the exchange rate.
F=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
13. Current and June 2022 forecast
2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
GDP, % change 3.0 1.9 -0.5 1.1 1.5
June 2022 3.5 1.7 0.5 1.5
Inflation (HICP), % 2.1 7.2 5.0 1.6 1.7
June 2022 2.1 5.6 2.4 1.8
Employment rate, % 72.1 73.7 73.6 73.8 74.1
June 2022 72.2 73.7 73.8 74.3
Unemployment rate, % 7.7 6.9 7.4 7.2 7.1
June 2022 7.6 6.5 6.5 6.4
Current account, % to GDP 0.6 -3.7 -0.8 0.4 -0.2
June 2022 0.7 -1.0 -0.6 0.1
General government net lending, % to GDP -2.7 -0.9 -1.8 -2.0 -2.6
June 2022 -2.6 -1.9 -1.8 -1.6
General government debt (EDP), % to GDP 72.4 72.2 71.9 73.2 74.9
June 2022 65.8 64.4 65.4 66.1
F=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
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