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The Bank of Finland estimate puts the sustainability gap in Finland’s public finances at 4.7%. If public expenditures over the long term continue to be larger than revenues, public debt will eventually begin to grow out of control.

Global uncertainties are weakening investment growth in Finland. A similar effect is being exerted by structural factors in the domestic economy.

Finland’s economic boom is over and growth will slow temporarily, in step with global developments. The foundations for continued growth are, however, still in place. Monetary policy continues to be accommodative, and households’ purchasing power is growing.

The alternative scenario attached to the forecast for the Finnish economy analyses what implications a delay in the recovery of the global economy would have for the Finnish economy.

Fiscal buffers should be accumulated when the economic situation is relatively bright. This would help to reduce the sustainability gap in the public finances and improve readiness for future recessions.

Finland’s annual economic growth will slow temporarily. The difficulties in the global economy will also affect Finland. The prerequisites for growth are, however, still in place. See our accessible summary.

The Finnish economy is still going through a period of transition in which it has to adjust to two large structural realignments.

See forecast tables for the Finnish economy in 2019–2022 (Dec 2019).