A wide coalition of countries have imposed economic sanctions on Russia for its brutal aggression against Ukraine. The sanctions regime has impaired – but not exhausted – Russia’s financial and technological ability to make war.
There is still work to be done to improve the financial system’s resilience to crises. Key steps would include a stronger cap on household borrowing in Finland, and a common system of protection for bank deposits across Europe.
The Finnish economy slipped into recession last autumn as a result of the energy crisis brought on by Russia’s war in Ukraine. The economy's weak performance will continue this year, as it takes time for the effects of high inflation and the rise in interest rates to be felt in full.
The war in Ukraine and the energy crisis are fanning uncertainty and driving up inflation. Reduced purchasing power will hit private consumption, and the economy will slide into a mild recession. Finland’s GDP will shrink by 0.5% in 2023. Growth will return in 2024, reaching 1.1%.
The alternative scenario in the Bank of Finland’s forecast for the Finnish economy examines risks surrounding the Bank’s December 2022 baseline forecast which, should they materialise, could lead economic growth to be weaker than projected. The scenario estimates the possible impacts on the Finnish economy if Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on and if the availability of energy weakens further and economic uncertainty increases.
In recent years, Finland’s public finances have shifted from one crisis to the next. The debt ratio has grown almost without interruption since the global financial crisis. Halting the accumulation of further debt in the immediate years ahead would aim to give sufficient room for manoeuvre in future crises and for coming generations.
Finland’s general government revenue and expenditure are chronically out of balance. Population ageing is adding to health and social services spending and at the same time public debt service payments are growing. A fiscal correction will require significant spending cuts and tax increases in future parliamentary terms. The Bank of Finland estimates that the sustainability gap is about 4% of GDP.
Climate change is forcing the economy to transit towards a more sustainable future. Transition risks are related to the process of adjustment to a low-carbon economy. Granular data are needed to analyse the transition risks.
With India’s ever-increasing importance in the global economy, Europe’s central banks and other key institutions need to sharpen their focus on India. The International Relations Committee of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) established an informal India expert network in 2021.
Finland’s general government debt ratio has grown almost without interruption since the global financial crisis. This trend differs significantly from that seen in the other Nordic countries. It is vital to build a strong political commitment to fiscal sustainability and to the resolute implementation of the measures this calls for.
Growth in Finland’s economy will stall temporarily due to Ukraine war and energy crisis. High inflation is weakening consumers’ purchasing power and general confidence in the economy. In the public finances, spending will continue to exceed revenues.
Russia’s oil exports have decreased only marginally in volume since it began the war in Ukraine. While the export volume to countries of the European Union has fallen somewhat, Russia has found new markets in India, China and Türkiye.
The energy crisis is threatening to increase the euro area’s energy bill many times over. This will impede growth in the euro area economy in the near term. Besides energy prices, the prices of other products too have climbed sharply.
This website saves on your device small data files known as cookies. These are divided into essential cookies and statistical ones. Essential cookies are always operational, as they allow use of the site and ensure data security.
The site does not use any cookies that identify the user.
Select ‘Approve cookies’ or click ‘Edit cookie settings’, read the additional information and tailor the cookies to your preferences.
Essential cookies enable the website’s data security and basic functions such as navigating around the site and the search function. Essential cookies do not gather any data that can identify a user of the site.
Statistical enhancement cookies help us develop the site to meet users’ needs. They gather data on e.g. users’ terminals, site visits and time spent on the site. Statistical cookies do not gather any data that can identify the user.