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Finland’s banking sector could withstand even a harsher recession than forecast

The capital position of Finland’s banking sector is expected to strengthen in the immediate years ahead, provided that interest rates and the economy develop in line with forecasts. In a very severe economic crisis, the capital position would weaken significantly but would still remain adequate.

Fiscal policy and debt sustainability in the euro area since the COVID-19 pandemic and energy crisis

The revised EU fiscal rules aim to improve primary balances and consequently strengthen the debt sustainability of EU Member States.The sustainability of government debt levels depends on the size of the interest rate-growth differential and primary balances.

Alternative scenario: Higher interest rates are slowing inflation and economic growth in Finland

In Finland, variable rate mortgages are common, which to some extent is amplifying the impacts of monetary policy on economic growth and inflation. A key factor is the extent to which households have a financial margin to use as a buffer against increases in their loan servicing costs.

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