The coronavirus pandemic will drive the Finnish economy into recession this year.

Finland’s economic growth will be slower during the next three years. Growth has also slowed in the euro area and elsewhere around the world. However, there are still possibilities for growth in the Finnish economy.

Finnish growth will continue, but at a slower pace than in recent years. There is no returning to the growth rate that preceded the financial crisis.

Global demand, improved competitiveness and favourable financing conditions will support growth. GDP growth forecasts for 2018–2020 stand at 2,9%, 2,2%, and 1,7%. Inflation will remain close to 1% over the years 2018–2019 before gathering pace and reaching 1.5% in 2020.

The global economy is still growing strongly, but there are already certain signs that the growth rate is levelling off. The deceleration in euro area growth has long been expected in the forecasts.

The Bank of Finland forecasts that Finland’s GDP will grow 3.1% in 2017, 2.5% in 2018 and 1.5% per annum in 2019–2020. Growth will be broadly based and amplified by exports. A more positive current account will lay a foundation for sustainable growth.

The global economy and world trade continue to grow strongly. In many countries, an expansionary economic policy is supporting growth.

The few ‘superstars’ of high productivity and profitability stand out in the large mass of firms. A one-size-fits-all economic policy is unsuitable in an environment of considerable heterogeneity in productivity and profitability.