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Forecast tables

Forecast tables for 2020–2023 (December 2020)

COVID-19 will gradually be left behind in the course of 2021 due to the vaccines, and private consumption will generate growth of 2.2% in the Finnish economy. This will strengthen to 2.5% in 2022.

 

December 2020 

1. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, VOLUMES, AT REFERENCE YEAR 2010 PRICES
Volume, % change on previous year
  2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
GDP at market prices 1.1 –3.8 2.2 2.5 1.5
Imports of goods and services 3.3 –7.1 4.5 4.0 3.3
Exports of goods and services 7.7 –9.1 5.7 3.9 3.3
Private consumption 0.8 –5.3 3.6 4.0 1.8
Public consumption 1.1 3.2 2.1 –0.7 0.2
Private fixed investment –1.6 –5.6 –3.2 3.8 2.3
Public fixed investment 2.1 8.3 1.7 0.3 1.8
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   

 

2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
  2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
GDP, % change 1.1 –3.8 2.2 2.5 1.5
Net exports 1.7 –0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
Domestic demand excl. inventory change 0.5 –2.8 1.8 2.6 2.6
of which Consumption 0.7 –2.0 2.3 1.9 1.9
         Investment –0.2 –0.8 –0.5 0.7 0.7
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy –1.0 –0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND. PRICE DEFLATORS     
Index 2010 = 100. and % change on previous year      
  2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
GDP at market prices 116.8  119.3  120.7  122.2  124.0 
  1.8  2.1  1.2  1.3  1.5 
Imports of goods and services 105.6  100.0  101.5  103.9  106.4 
  0.4  –5.4  1.5  2.4  2.4 
Exports of goods and services 107.0  101.7  103.6  105.8  107.9 
  –0.3  –4.9  1.9  2.1  2.0 
Private consumption 114.1  114.4  115.5  117.1  118.9 
  1.0  0.3  1.0  1.3  1.6 
Public consumption 116.5  119.1  120.5  122.4  124.5 
  2.5  2.2  1.2  1.6  1.7 
Private fixed investment 120.0  121.9  123.2  124.9  127.1 
  3.1  1.5  1.1  1.5  1.8 
Public fixed investment 117.8  117.5  118.5  119.7  121.3 
  2.5  –0.3  0.9  1.0  1.3 
Terms of trade (goods and services) 101.3  101.8  102.1  101.7  101.4 
  –0.6  0.5  0.3  –0.3  –0.4 
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
EUR million and % change on previous year          
  2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
GDP at market prices 240,556 236,470 244,407 253,734 261,354
  2.9 –1.7 3.4 3.8 3.0
Imports of goods and services 95,892 84,247 89,393 95,230 100,654
  3.7 –12.1 6.1 6.5 5.7
Total supply 336,448 320,717 333,800 348,964 362,008
  3.2 –4.7 4.1 4.5 3.7
Exports of goods and services 96,652 83,593 89,965 95,396 100,521
  7.4 –13.5 7.6 6.0 5.4
Consumption 181,348 178,035 185,425 192,628 198,273
  2.4 –1.8 4.2 3.9 2.9
  Private 126,029 119,657 125,145 131,837 136,284
  1.8 –5.1 4.6 5.3 3.4
  Public 55,319 58,378 60,280 60,791 61,989
  3.6 5.5 3.3 0.8 2.0
Fixed investment 57,482 56,314 55,640 58,140 60,413
  2.0 –2.0 –1.2 4.5 3.9
  Private 47,168 45,177 44,208 46,558 48,468
  1.4 –4.2 –2.1 5.3 4.1
  Public 10,314 11,137 11,432 11,582 11,945
  4.6 8.0 2.6 1.3 3.1
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 966 2,775 2,770 2,800 2,800
% of previous year's total demand –0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total demand 336,448 320,717 333,800 348,964 362,008
  3.2 –4.7 4.1 4.5 3.7
Total domestic demand 239,796 237,123 243,835 253,568 261,487
  1.5 –1.1 2.8 4.0 3.1
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND     
% in proportion to GDP at current prices    
  2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 39.9 35.6 36.6 37.5 38.5
Exports of goods and services 40.2 35.4 36.8 37.6 38.5
Consumption 75.4 75.3 75.9 75.9 75.9
   Private 52.4 50.6 51.2 52.0 52.1
   Public 23.0 24.7 24.7 24.0 23.7
Fixed investment 23.9 23.8 22.8 22.9 23.1
   Private 19.6 19.1 18.1 18.3 18.5
   Public 4.3 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
Total demand 139.9 135.6 136.6 137.5 138.5
Total domestic demand 99.7 100.3 99.8 99.9 100.1
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

6. PRICES
Index 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year
  2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2015 = 100 103.6 104.0 104.9 106.1 107.7
  1.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.5
Consumer price index, 2015 = 100 103.3 103.6 104.4 105.6 107.2
  1.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.5
Private consumption deflator 114.1 114.4 115.5 117.1 118.9
  1.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.6
Private investment deflator 120.0 121.9 123.2 124.9 127.1
  3.1 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.8
Exports of goods and services deflator 107.0 101.7 103.6 105.8 107.9
  –0.3 –4.9 1.9 2.1 2.0
Imports of goods and services deflator 105.6 100.0 101.5 103.9 106.4
  0.4 –5.4 1.5 2.4 2.4
Value-added deflators          
Value-added, gross at basic prices 116.7 118.9 120.7 122.8 125.4
  1.8 1.9 1.5 1.7 2.1
     Private sector 116.3 118.3 120.6 122.7 125.4
  1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.2
     Public sector 118.3 121.4 121.3 123.2 125.4
  3.2 2.6 –0.1 1.6 1.7
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY     
% change on previous year    
  2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
Whole economy          
     Index of wage and salary earnings 2.1 1.7 2.2 1.7 2.2
     Compensation per employee 1.3 0.6 3.6 1.9 2.3
     Unit labour costs 1.3 2.8 1.5 0.5 1.4
     Labour productivity per employed person 0.0 –2.2 2.0 1.4 0.8
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

8. LABOUR MARKET     
1.000 persons and % change on previous year
  2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)          
Employed persons 2,566 2,525 2,529 2,556 2,573
  1.1 –1.6 0.1 1.1 0.7
Unemployed persons 184 215 228 212 205
  –8.7 16.8 6.3 –7.1 –3.4
Labour force 2,750 2,740 2,757 2,768 2,778
  0.4 –0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,428 3,421 3,414 3,410 3,409
  –0.3 –0.2 –0.2 –0.1 0.0
Labour force participation rate, % 66.6 66.3 66.8 67.3 67.7
Unemployment rate, % 6.7 7.8 8.3 7.7 7.4
Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 72.5 71.6 71.8 72.7 73.2
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE. EXPENDITURE. BALANCE AND DEBT
  2019  2020f  2021f 2022f 2023f
% of GDP            
General government revenue 52.3 51.2 52.3 52.3 52.3
General government expenditure 53.3 58.3 57.0 55.5 54.7
General government primary expenditure 52.5 57.6 56.3 54.8 54.1
General government interest expenditure 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6
General government net lending –1.0 –7.1 –4.7 –3.2 –2.4
Central government net lending –1.2 –6.4 –4.1 –2.7 –1.9
Local government net lending –1.1 –0.5 –0.9 –1.0 –1.2
Social security funds 1.4 –0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6
General government primary balance –0.2 –6.3 –4.0 –2.6 –1.8
General government debt (consolidated. EDP) 59.3 68.4 71.3 72.6 74.0
Central government debt 44.2 52.7 55.3 56.4 57.4
Tax ratio 42.2 41.4 42.3 42.2 42.2
Current prices, EUR billion          
General government net lending –2,310 –16,751 –11,495 –8,132 –6,242
Central government net lending –2,896 –15,217 –10,019 –6,884 –4,863
Local government net lending –2,725 –1,288 –2,247 –2,610 –3,043
Social security funds 3,311 –245 771 1,361 1,664
General government debt (consolidated. EDP) 142,539 161,857 174,160 184,203 193,478
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS     
EUR billion     
  2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 96.7 83.6 90.0 95.4 100.5
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 95.9 84.2 89.4 95.2 100.7
Goods and services account (SNA) 0.8 –0.7 0.6 0.2 –0.1
     % to GDP 0.3 –0.3 0.2 0.1 –0.1
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2
Current transfers, net –2.4 –2.5 –2.4 –2.3 –2.1
Current account, net –0.5 –17.6 –0.6 –0.9 –1.0
Net lending, % to GDP              
     Private sector 0.8 6.3 4.4 2.8 2.0
     Public sector –1.0 –7.1 –4.7 –3.2 –2.4
Current account, % to GDP –0.2 –0.7 –0.3 –0.4 –0.4
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

11. INTEREST RATES     
%     
  2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
3-month Euribor1 –0.4 –0.4 –0.5 –0.5 –0.5
Average interest rate on new loan drawdowns2 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 0.1 –0.2 –0.3 –0.3 –0.2
1 Tehnical assumption derived from market expectations.          
2 Finnish credit institutions' loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts. credit card credits and repurchase agreements).    
3 Finnish credit institutions' deposits from households and non-financial corporations.          
Source: Bank of Finland.     

  

12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
The Eurosystem staff projections    
  2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
Real GDP, volume, % change on previous year          
World 2.7 –3.5 5.6 3.9 3.4
USA 2.2 –3.6 3.8 2.2 1.8
Euro area 1.3 –7.3 3.9 4.2 2.1
Japan 0.7 –5.3 2.8 1.3 0.8
Real imports, volume, % change on previous year              
World 0.6 –9.5 7.1 4.3 3.6
USA 1.1 –10.7 7.6 3.9 2.5
Euro area 0.6 –10.7 6.6 4.1 3.2
Japan –0.6 –7.2 2.6 3.0 2.4
Index, 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year              
Import volume in Finnish export markets 114.9 103.8 110.8 116.3 120.4
  1.4 –9.6 6.7 4.9 3.5
Export prices of Finland's competitors (excl. oil), in national currencies 107.4 105.1 107.3 109.5 111.6
  1.1 –2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9
Export prices of Finland's industrial competitors (excl. oil), in euro 101.3 96.8 97.5 99.6 101.4
  1.8 –4.5 0.8 2.1 1.9
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 119.0 119.8 130.8 133.4 137.0
  –5.3 0.6 9.2 2.0 2.7
Oil price, USD per barrel1 64.1 41.6 44.1 45.7 47.0
  –9.9 –35.1 5.9 3.7 2.8
Finland's nominal competitiveness indicator2 93.8 91.6 90.5 90.5 90.5
  –0.7 2.4 1.3 0.0 0.0
US dollar value of one euro3 1.12 1.14 1.18 1.18 1.18
  –5.2 1.6 4.1 0.0 0.0
1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.           
2 Narrow, supplemented with euro area countries, January–March 1999 = 100.           
3 Exchange rates assumed stable during the forecast period.          
Sources: Bank of Finland and European Central Bank.     

 

13. CURRENT AND JUNE 2020 FORECAST
  2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
GDP, % change 1.1 –3.8 2.2 2.5
June 2020 1.0 –6.9 3.0 2.9
Inflation (HICP), % 1.1 0.4 0.9 1.2
June 2020 1.1 0.2 0.7 1.3
Current account, % to GDP –0.2 –0.7 –0.3 –0.4
June 2020 –0.8 –2.3 –1.9 –1.8
General government net lending, % to GDP –1.0 –7.1 –4.7 –3.2
June 2020 –1.1 –8.0 –4.9 –3.8
General government debt (EDP), % to GDP 59.3 68.4 71.3 72.6
June 2020 59.4 71.3 73.3 74.5
Unemployment rate, % 6.7 7.8 8.3 7.7
June 2020 6.7 9.0 9.3 8.8
Employment rate, 15–64-year-olds, % 72.5 71.6 71.8 72.7
June 2020 72.5 70.8 70.6 71.2
Source: Bank of Finland.    

 

 

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