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Forecast tables

Forecast tables for 2019–2021 (June 2019)

See forecast tables for the Finnish economy in 2019–2021.

June 2019 

1. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT REFERENCE YEAR 2010 PRICES
% change on previous year
  2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
GDP at market prices 2.7 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.3
Imports of goods and services 3.8 4.2 1.9 1.8 2.6
Exports of goods and services 7.7 1.5 2.8 2.1 2.8
Private consumption 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4
Public consumption -0.4 1.4 0.4 0.6 0.1
Private fixed investment 4.8 3.3 2.2 2.0 2.0
Public fixed investment 2.4 3.0 0.3 0.1 1.5
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

 

2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
  2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
GDP, % change 2.7 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.3
Net exports 1.4 -1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1
Domestic demand excl. inventory change 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.2
of which Consumption 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8
         Investment 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy -0.4 1.6 0.0 0.1 0.0
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights. 
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRICE DEFLATORS     
Index 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year    
  2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
GDP at market prices 113.2 115.4 117.5 119.6 122.1
  0.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.1
Imports of goods and services 101.8 105.4 105.6 108.0 110.1
  3.4 3.5 0,2 2.2 2.0
Exports of goods and services 104.4 108.6 109.2 111.5 113.7
  3.3 4.0 0.6 2.1 2.0
Private consumption 111.8 113.3 114.7 116.1 118.0
  0.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.6
Public consumption 112.3 114.1 116.8 120.4 124.6
  0.3 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.4
Private fixed investment 112.4 115.4 118.1 120.6 122.9
  1.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.9
Public fixed investment 112.1 115.6 117.4 120.3 122.5
  1.0 3.1 1.6 2.5 1.8
Terms of trade (goods and services) 102.5 103.0 103.4 103.3 103.3
  -0.1 0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.0
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
EUR million and % change on previous year      
  2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
GDP at market prices 223,892 233,555 241,574 249,589 258,088
  3.6 4.3 3.4 3.3 3.4
Imports of goods and services 85,577 92,329 94,303 98,091 102,606
  7.3 7.9 2.1 4.0 4.6
Total supply 309,469 325,884 335,877 347,680 360,694
  4.6 5.3 3.1 3.5 3.7
Exports of goods and services 86,228 91,005 94,095 98,041 102,735
  11.3 5.5 3.4 4.2 4.8
Consumption 172,992 177,888 182,562 188,001 194,047
  1.4 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.2
   Private 121,513 124,844 128,037 131,461 135,491
  2.1 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1
   Public 51,479 53,044 54,525 56,540 58,556
  -0.1 3.0 2.8 3.7 3.6
Fixed investment 49,591 52,603 54,740 56,838 59,011
  5.9 6.1 4.1 3.8 3.8
   Private 40,434 42,880 44,834 46,682 48,514
  6.4 6.0 4.6 4.1 3.9
   Public 9,157 9,723 9,906 10,156 10,498
  3.5 6.2 1.9 2.5 3.4
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 658 4,388 4,480 4,800 4,900
% of previous year's total demand -0.1 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.0
Total demand 309,469 325,884 335,877 347,680 360,694
  4.6 5.3 3.1 3.5 3.7
Total domestic demand 223,241 234,879 241,782 249,639 257,959
  2.3 5.2 2.9 3.2 3.3
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND     
% of GDP at current prices     
  2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 38.2 39.5   39.3 39.8
Exports of goods and services 38.5 39.0 39.0 39.3 39.8
Consumption 77.3 76.2 39.0 75.3 75.2
   Private 54.3 53.5 75.6 52.7 52.5
   Public 23.0 22.7 53.0 22.7 22.7
Fixed investment 22.1 22.5 22.6 22.8 22.9
   Private 18.1 18.4 22.7 18.7 18.8
   Public 4.1 4.2 18.6 4.1 4.1
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.3 1.9 4.1 1.9 1.9
Total demand 138.2 139.5 1.9 139.3 139.8
Total domestic demand 99.7 100.6 139.0 100.0 99.9
100.1Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

6. PRICES
Index 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year
  2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2005 = 100 101.2 102.4 103.8 105.2 106.8
  0.8 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6
Consumer price index, 2005 = 100 101.1 102.3 103.6 105.1 106.7
  0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6
Private consumption deflator 111.8 113.3 114.7 116.1 118.0
  0.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.6
Private investment deflator 112.4 115.4 118.1 120.6 122.9
  1.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.9
Exports of goods and services deflator 104.4 108.6 109.2 111.5 113.7
  3.3 4,0 0.6 2.1 2.0
Imports of goods and services deflator 101.8 105.4 105.6 108.0 110.1
  3.4 3.5 0.2 2.2 2.0
Value-added deflators          
Value-added, gross at basic prices 113.5 116.0 118.0 120.7 123.4
  1.2 2.2 1.7 2.3 2.2
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY     
% change on previous year     
  2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
Whole economy          
   Index of wage and salary earnings 0.2 1.7 2.4 2.8 2.4
   Compensation per employee -1.2 1.3 1.5 2.9 2.3
   Unit labour costs -2.7 1.6 0.7 1.8 1.4
   Labour productivity per employed person 1.5 -0.3 0.7 1.1 0.9
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

8. LABOUR MARKET
1,000 persons and % change on previous year 
  2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)          
Employed persons 2,474 2,538 2,560 2,570 2,582
  1.1 2.6 0.9 0.4 0.4
Unemployed persons 234 202 177 175 173
  -0.9 -13.8 -12.2 -1.3 -1.3
Labour force 2,708 2,740 2,737 2,745 2,754
  0.9 1.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,451 3,439 3,431 3,423 3,417
  -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
Labour force participation rate, % 65.8 66.4 66.3 66.6 67.0
Unemployment rate, % 8.6 7.4 6.5 6.4 6.3
Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 69.6 71.7 72.5 72.9 73.3
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURE, BALANCE AND DEBT
  2016 2017  2018f  2019f 2020f
% of GDP          
General government revenue 53.4 52.5 51.9 52.0 51.8
General government expenditure 54.2 53.1 52.4 52.3 52.1
General government primary expenditure 53.2 52.2 51.7 51.6 51.5
General government interest expenditure 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6
General government net lending -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3
Central government -1.8 -1.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6
Local government -0.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7
Social security funds 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9
General government primary balance 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2
General government structural balance1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.4 -0.5
General government debt (consolidated, EDP) 61.3 58.9 58.5 57.9 57.2
Central government debt 47.2 44.9 44.3 43.5 42.6
Tax ratio 43.3 42.3 42.0 42.2 41.9
Current prices, EUR billion          
General government net lending -1.8 -1.3 -1,2 -0.5 -0.9
Central government -4.1 -2.7 -1,9 -1.6 -1.4
Local government -0.4 -1.8 -2.0 -1.6 -1.7
Social security funds 2.7 3.2 2.7 2.7 2.3
General government debt (consolidated, EDP) 137.3 137.5 141.4 144.6 147.7
1The structural balance has been calculated using the methodology of the European Commission.
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
EUR billion
  2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 86.2 91.0 94.1 98.0 102.7
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 85.6 92.3 94.3 98.1 102.6
Goods and services account (SNA) 0.7 -1.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1
     % of GDP 0.3 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 0.7 -0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0
Current transfers, net -2.1 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 -2.7
Current account, net -0.7 -43.6 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6
Net lending, % of GDP     
   Private sector 0.5 -1.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3
   Public sector -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3
Current account, % of GDP -0.3 -1.9 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

11. INTEREST RATES
%
  2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
3-month Euribor1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2
Average interest rate on new loan drawdowns2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9
Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4
Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.6
1 Tehnical assumption derived from market expectations.     
2 Finnish credit institutions' loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts, credit card credits and repurchase agreements). 
3 Finnish credit institutions' deposits from households and non-financial corporations.     
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
The Eurosystem staff projections     
  2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
GDP, % change on previous year
   World 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.3
   USA 2.2 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.8
   Euro area 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.5
   Japan 1.7 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.7
Imports, % change on previous year     
   World 5.2 4.7 3.7 3.7 3.9
   USA 4.6 4.7 4.1 3.2 2.9
   Euro area 4.1 2.7 4.2 4.2 3.6
   Japan 3.5 2.7 2.3 1.8 2.3
Index, 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year     
Import volume in Finnish export markets 128.6 133.0 135.5 139.3 143.8
  5.9 3.5 1.9 2.8 3.2
Export prices of Finland's competitors (excl. oil), in national currencies 109.7 115.4 119.0 122.2 125.1
  3.3 5.2 3.1 2.7 2.4
Export prices of Finland's industrial competitors (excl. oil), in euro 104.9 106.3 110.0 112.8 115.5
  2.9 1.4 3.4 2.6 2.4
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 118.2 124.8 117.6 119.5 122.8
  21.5 5.6 -5.8 1.6 2.7
Oil price, USD per barrel1 54.4 71.1 68.1 65.7 62.6
  23.5 30.6 -4.2 -3.5 -4.7
Finland's nominal competitiveness indicator2 103.6 107.5 107.2 107.3 107.3
  0.3 3.8 -0.3 0.1 0.0
US dollar value of one euro 1.13 1.18 1.12 1.12 1.12
  2.1 4.5 -4.8 -0.4 0.0
1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.          
2 Narrow, supplemented with euro area countries, January–March 1999 = 100.          
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

13. CURRENT AND DECEMBER 2018 FORECAST
  2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
GDP, % change 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.3
   December 2018 2.7 1.9 1.7 1,4
Inflation (HICP), % 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6
   December 2018 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.7
Current account, % of GDP -1.9 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
   December 2018 -0.9 0.0 0.1 0.1
General government net lending, % of GDP -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3
   December 2018 -0.9 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3
General government debt (EDP), % of GDP 58.9 58.5 57.9 57.2
   December 2018 59.4 59.0 57.9 57.1
Unemployment rate, % 7.4 6.5 6.4 6.3
   December 2018 7.6 7.2 7.1 7.0
Source: Bank of Finland.    

 

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