Forecast: Finland grows, and gathers more debt

Savings are historically low on account of the low level of interest rates and strong consumer confidence. Households’ continued accumulation of debt does, however, entail risks for the economy.

The few ‘superstars’ of high productivity and profitability stand out in the large mass of firms. A one-size-fits-all economic policy is unsuitable in an environment of considerable heterogeneity in productivity and profitability.

The global market share of Finnish exports has been declining continuously ever since the financial crisis. To what extent is the decline in market share explained by the structure of goods exports?

Digital technology has improved our well-being in ways that are difficult to measure in monetary terms. Not all the effects of digitalisation are fully reflected in GDP.

Exports and productivity could grow faster than estimated in the Bank of Finland’s baseline forecast. However, a temporary period of faster growth would not suffice to resolve the problems with fiscal sustainability.

In both the United States and the euro area, economic growth has picked up and the labour market has strengthened without the build-up of significant wage and price pressures. This raises the question as to how far the economy can still be from its potential output.

Demand for Finnish exports may have been weakened by the current low level of investment in the advanced economies, especially in Europe.

The political uncertainty in both the euro area and the United States has eased, providing a firm foundation for continued economic expansion.

According to the most recent quarterly national accounts, Finland’s GDP in the first quarter of 2017 grew 1.2% quarter on quarter and 2.7% year on year.

See forecast tables for the Finnish economy in 2017–2019 (June 2017).