Financial stability assessment: Debt-to-income cap and maturity limits necessary to curb financial stability risks

Buy-to-let mortgages are becoming more common than ever before and, according to the most recent data, their share of new housing loans stands at 10%. The lion’s share of non-subsidised rental housing is privately owned.

A larger share than before of new housing loans have been granted to highly indebted households. Large amounts of debt are particularly common among households in the growth centres. A debt-to-income cap would rein in excessive indebtedness.

Based on an analysis by the Bank of Finland, the introduction of a debt-to-income cap would have only a moderate impact on long-term economic growth. A debt-to-income cap could dampen economic fluctuations when compared with the current loan-to-value cap.

Housing company loans are increasing household indebtedness and altering the structure of debt. A loan-to-value limit of 60% would reduce housing-purchasers’ substantial accumulation of debt via housing company loans.

In an economic crisis there can be a risk of a credit slump in which loan losses weaken banks’ ability to extend credit. During the COVID-19 pandemic the risks of corporate lending have grown, but substantial loan losses have been avoided.

Housing and real estate trading has continued despite the economic uncertainty. The rapid rise in prices and lending growth are increasing the vulnerabilities of Nordic banks.

COVID-19 has ravaged the banks less than feared. Growth in non-performing loans would weaken banks’ ability to extend credit. A number of methods have been suggested to reduce the number of non-performing loans.

The Bank of Finland and Financial Supervisory Authority’s new stress-testing framework can be used to assess the ability of Finnish banks to cope in severe domestic or Nordic economic crises.