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Analysis

Assessment of Public Finances

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Financial Stability Assessment

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26 charts

Finland’s export growth will come to a standstill if trade war escalates

Trade war escalation would push Finland into a prolonged downturn

Finland’s cost competitiveness will remain virtually unchanged in 2025–2027

Earnings will rise by about 3% annually in the immediate years ahead

Tax increases will push up consumer prices in 2025

Potential output will grow slowly

Cyclical conditions will improve slightly in 2026, but economic resources will continue to be underutilised

Labour market will slowly improve

Debt ratio will rise significantly in 2025

Public finances will remain significantly in deficit

Current account will remain close to balance in the forecast period

Weak investment in export markets will dampen export growth

Uncertainty will weaken investment growth in 2025

Private consumption growth will pick up as the economic outlook improves

Economic growth will gradually recover as uncertainty eases

Interest rates fell further in early 2025

Trade war depressing growth in demand for Finland’s exports

Defence spending in EU countries in 2023 according to NATO and according to the statistics on general government expenditure by function

High participation rate of foreign-born people in 15–74 age group

Decrease in number of young people of working age outside the labour force and changes in employment status of 15–24-year-olds, 2010–2024