Article content

The Finnish economy will grow 1.7% in 2022 and 0.5% in 2023.

Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
1.BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND AT REFERENCE YEAR 2015 PRICES
% change on previous year
  2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP at market prices -2.3 3.5 1.7 0.5 1.5
Imports of goods and services -6.6 5.3 3.5 1.0 1.8
Exports of goods and services                                   -7.5 4.7 1.5 2.1 3.5
Private consumption -4.1 3.1 1.7 0.6 1.0
Public consumption 0.4 3.2 1.8 -0.3 0.5
Private fixed investment -2.9 4.6 4.7 -1.3 0.5
Public fixed investment 11.2 -12.0 6.9 2.0 2.5
f=forecast
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
  2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP, % change -2.3 3.5 1.7 0.5 1.5
Net exports -0.3 -0.2 -0.8 0.5 0.7
Domestic demand excl. inventory change -2.1 2.7 2.5 0.1 0.8
of which Consumption -2.1 2.4 1.3 0.2 0.6
      Investment -0.1 0.3 1.2 -0.2 0.2
Inventory change + statistical  discrepancy 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRICE DEFLATORS
Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year
  2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP at market prices 106.1 109.0 115.2 117.9 120.3
  1.6 2.7 5.7 2.4 2.0
Imports of goods and services 99.7 109.5 124.3 126.8 127.7
  -5.1 9.8 13.5 2.0 0.7
Exports of goods and services                                   100.4 110.8 125.4 128.1 129.2
  -3.9 10.4 13.2 2.1 0.9
Private consumption 104.1 106.1 112.0 114.6 116.7
  0.5 2.0 5.6 2.3 1.8
Public consumption 106.2 108.5 112.4 115.0 117.2
  3.5 2.1 3.6 2.4 1.9
Private fixed investment 111.1 112.5 117.0 120.2 123.3
  1.3 1.3 3.9 2.8 2.6
Public fixed investment 107.5 109.6 114.6 117.2 119.3
  0.2 2.0 4.6 2.2 1.9
Terms of trade (goods and services) 100.7 101.3 100.9 101.0 101.1
  1.3 0.6 -0.4 0.1 0.2
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
EUR million and % change on previous year
  2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP at market prices 238,079 253,023 272,018 279,970 289,963
  -0.8 6.3 7.5 2.9 3.6
Imports of goods and services 84,537 97,881 114,764 118,254 121,196
  -11.3 15.8 17.2 3.0 2.5
Total supply 322,532 350,815 386,685 398,124 411,056
  -3.8 8.8 10.2 3.0 3.2
Exports of goods and services                                   85,104 98,474 112,888 117,738 122,877
  -11.0 15.7 14.6 4.3 4.4
Consumption 179,310 188,751 201,513 206,877 212,482
  -1.3 5.3 6.8 2.7 2.7
   Private 121,502 127,838 137,272 141,282 145,261
  -3.6 5.2 7.4 2.9 2.8
   Public                                                       57,808 60,913 64,241 65,595 67,221
  3.9 5.4 5.5 2.1 2.5
Fixed investment                                                    57,553 59,070 64,580 65,809 68,000
  0.8 2.6 9.3 1.9 3.3
   Private 45,875 48,591 52,862 53,593 55,253
  -1.6 5.9 8.8 1.4 3.1
   Public                                                       11,678 10,479 11,718 12,216 12,747
  11.4 -10.3 11.8 4.2 4.4
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 565 4,520 7,704 7,701 7,697
  % of previous year's total demand 0.0 1.2 0.9 0.0 0.0
Total demand 322,532 350,815 386,685 398,124 411,056
  -3.8 8.8 10.2 3.0 3.2
Total domestic demand 237,428 252,341 273,797 280,386 288,179
  -0.9 6.3 8.5 2.4 2.8
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
% in proportion to GDP at current prices
  2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 35.5 38.7 42.2 42.3 41.8
Exports of goods and services                                   35.8 38.9 41.5 42.1 42.4
Consumption 75.3 74.6 74.1 73.9 73.3
  Private 51.1 50.5 50.5 50.5 50.1
  Public 24.3 24.1 23.6 23.4 23.2
Fixed investment 24.2 23.4 23.7 23.5 23.5
  Private 19.3 19.2 19.4 19.1 19.1
  Public 4.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.4
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy, 0.2 1.8 2.8 2.8 2.7
Total demand 135.5 138.7 142.2 142.3 141.8
Total domestic demand 99.8 99.8 100.7 100.2 99.4
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
6. PRICES
Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year
  2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2005=100 104.0 106.1 112.1 114.7 116.8
  0.4 2.1 5.6 2.4 1.8
Consumer price index, 2005=100 103.5 105.8 111.5 114.1 116.1
  0.3 2.2 5.4 2.3 1.8
Private consumption deflator                                          104.1 106.1 112.0 114.6 116.7
  0.5 2.0 5.5 2.3 1.8
Private investment deflator 111.1 112.5 117.0 120.2 123.3
  1.3 1.3 3.9 2.8 2.6
Exports of goods and services deflator 100.4 110.8 125.4 128.1 129.2
  -3.9 10.4 13.2 2.1 0.9
Imports of goods and services deflator 99.7 109.5 124.3 126.8 127.7
  -5.1 9.8 13.5 2.0 0.7
Value-added deflators                                             
Value-added, gross at basic prices                                        106.4 109.5 115.2 117.8 120.2
  1.8 3.0 5.2 2.2 2.0
  Private sector 106.3 109.8 115.9 118.5 121.0
  1.2 3.3 5.6 2.3 2.1
  Public sector 106.8 108.3 112.1 114.1 116.2
  4.7 1.4 3.5 1.8 1.8
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
% change on previous year
  2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f
Whole economy   
   Index of wage and salary earnings 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.0 2.4
   Compensation per employee 0.4 4.4 3.4 3.8 3.0
   Unit labour costs 0.7 3.6 4.1 3.3 2.0
   Labour productivity per employed person -0.3 0.8 -0.7 0.5 0.9
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
8. LABOUR MARKET
1,000 persons and % change on previous year
  2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)
Employed persons 2,482 2,547 2,610 2,611 2,627
  -2.0 2.6 2.4 0.1 0.6
Unemployed persons 208 210 182 183 181
  14.7 0.7 -13.5 0.7 -0.9
Labour force 2,691 2,757 2,791 2,794 2,808
  -1.0 2.5 1.2 0.1 0.5
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,421 3,417 3,418 3,417 3,416
  -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Labour force participation rate, %                                                      65.1 66.9 67.8 68.0 68.5
Unemployment rate, % 7.8 7.6 6.5 6.5 6.4
Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 70.7 72.2 73.7 73.8 74.3
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURE, BALANCE AND DEBT
% relative to GDP
  2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f
General government revenue 51.5 52.3 51.1 51.2 50.8
General government expenditure 57.0 54.9 53.1 52.9 52.4
General government primary expenditure 56.4 54.4 52.6 52.4 51.8
General government interest expenditure 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
General government net lending -5.5 -2.6 -1.9 -1.8 -1.6
Central government -5.5 -3.2 -2.5 -2.0 -1.9
Local government -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8
Social security funds 0.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1
General government primary balance -4.9 -2.1 -1.5 -1.2 -1.0
General government structural balance1 -4.3 -2.0 -2.0 -1.7 -1.6
General government debt (EDP) 69.0 65.8 64.4 65.4 66.1
Central government debt 52.5 50.9 50.1 51.0 51.7
Tax ratio 41.8 42.7 41.3 41.3 41.1
Current prices, EUR billion
General government net lending -13.1 -6.5 -5.3 -4.9 -4.7
Central government -13.1 -8.1 -6.7 -5.6 -5.5
Local government -0.1 -0.8 -1.9 -2.2 -2.3
Social security funds 0.1 2.4 3.3 2.9 3.1
General government debt (EDP) 164.2 166.4 175.0 182.9 191.6
1Based on the cyclical adjustment method used by the European System of Central Banks.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
EUR billion
  2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 85.1 98.5 112.9 117.7 122.9
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 84.5 97.9 114.8 118.3 121.2
Goods and services account (SNA) 0.6 0.6 -1.9 -0.5 1.7
  % to GDP 0.2 0.2 -0.7 -0.2 0.6
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 4.0 4.3 1.7 1.7 1.7
Current transfers, net -2.9 -3.1 -2.6 -2.7 -3.1
Current account, net 1.7 1.8 -2.8 -1.5 0.3
Net lending, % to GDP
  Private sector 6.2 3.3 0.9 1.2 1.7
  Public sector -5.5 -2.6 -2.0 -1.8 -1.6
Current account, % to GDP 0.7 0.7 -1.0 -0.6 0.1
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
11. INTEREST RATES
%
  2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f
3-month Euribor1 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 1.3 1.6
Average interest rate on new loan drawdowns2 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.7 3.0
Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 1.3 1.2 1.5 2.6 2.8
Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 1.4 -0.1 1.2 1.7 1.8
1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2Finnish credit institutions’ loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts, credit card credits and repurchase agreements).
3Finnish credit institutions’ deposits from households and non-financial corporations.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
The Eurosystem staff projections
  2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP, % change on previous year
World -2.8 6.3 3.0 3.3 3.4
USA -3.4 5.7 2.5 1.9 2.0
Euro area -6.5 5.4 2.8 2.1 2.1
Japan -4.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.1
Imports, % change on previous year
World  -8.3 11.4 4.3 3.2 3.6
USA -8.9 14.0 9.0 2.0 3.2
Euro area -9.3 8.8 4.1 3.5 3.4
Japan -7.3 5.1 5.1 4.2 4.2
Index, 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year
Import volume in Finnish export markets 105.9 117.0 119.3 122.0 126.2
  -8.3 10.5 2.0 2.2 3.5
Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, national currencies 105.5 116.6 133.2 136.1 137.1
  -1.4 10.6 14.2 2.2 0.8
Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, in euro 97.1 106.6 124.7 128.3 129.3
  -3.8 9.8 16.9 2.9 0.8
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 119.9 173.7 184.4 173.5 166.5
  1.2 44.9 6.2 -5.9 -4.0
Oil price, USD per barrel1 41.5 71.1 105.8 93.4 84.3
  -33.9 66.5 49.1 -11.7 -9.8
Finland's nominal competitiveness indicator2 109.2 109.9 107.4 106.6 106.6
  2.5 0.7 -2.3 -0.8 0.0
US dollar value of one euro1 1.14 1.18 1.07 1.05 1.05
  2.0 3.5 -9.5 -1.8 0.0
1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2Narrow plus euro area, 1999Q1 = 100
Source: Bank of Finland.
13. Current and December 2021 forecast
  2021 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP, % change 3.5 1.7 0.5 1.5
December 2021 3.5 2.6 1.5 1.3
Inflation (HICP), % 2.1 5.6 2.4 1.8
December 2021 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.8
Employment rate, % 72.2 73.7 73.8 74.3
December 2021 72.0 72.8 73.3 73.6
Unemployment rate, % 7.6 6.5 6.5 6.4
December 2021 7.7 7.1 6.6 6.6
Current account, % to GDP 0.7 -1.0 -0.6 0.1
December 2021 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.1
General government net lending, % to GDP -2.6 -1.9 -1.8 -1.6
December 2021 -2.9 -1.9 -1.3 -1.2
General government debt (EDP), % to GDP 65.8 64.4 65.4 66.1
December 2021 66.9 66.5 67.1 67.5
Back to top