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Forecast tables for 2021–2024 (December 2021)

The Finnish economy will grow 3.5% in 2021 and 2.6% in 2022.

Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   
1.BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT REFERENCE YEAR 2015 PRICES
% change on previous year
  2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP at market prices -2.9 3.5 2.6 1.5 1.3
Imports of goods and services -6.5 3.5 5.3 4.2 3.5
Exports of goods and services                                   -6.8 4.0 5.5 4.5 3.6
Private consumption -4.7 2.9 3.3 1.7 1.2
Public consumption 0.5 2.8 -0.3 -0.1 1.0
Private fixed investment -3.4 2.8 4.6 2.6 1.7
Public fixed investment 11.0 -5.0 5.0 0.3 1.9
2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1    
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   
  2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP, % change -2.9 3.5 2.6 1.5 1.3
Net exports -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0
Domestic demand excl. inventory change -2.5 2.5 2.7 1.4 1.3
of which Consumption -2.3 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.8
      Investment -0.2 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.4
Inventory change + statistical  discrepancy -0.2 0.9 -0.1 0.0 0.0
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares  at current prices as weights.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   
3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRICE DEFLATORS
Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year
  2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP at market prices 105.8 108.3 111.2 113.1 115.2
  1.3 2.4 2.7 1.7 1.9
Imports of goods and services 99.8 108.6 114.0 114.9 116.0
  -5.0 8.8 4.9 0.8 1.0
Exports of goods and services                                   102.1 110.3 116.1 117.0 118.2
  -4.4 8.0 5.3 0.8 1.0
Private consumption 104.1 106.2 108.4 110.1 112.2
  0.5 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.9
Public consumption 105.9 107.6 110.2 112.6 114.9
  3.1 1.6 2.4 2.2 2.1
Private fixed investment 110.8 112.1 115.4 117.5 119.5
  1.2 1.2 2.9 1.8 1.7
Public fixed investment 107.4 110.0 114.1 115.4 117.4
  0.1 2.4 3.7 1.2 1.7
Terms of trade (goods and services) 102.3 101.6 101.9 101.8 101.9
  0.6 -0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   
4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
EUR million and % change on previous year
  2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP at market prices 236,169 250,319 263,850 272,424 281,119
  -1.6 6.0 5.4 3.2 3.2
Imports of goods and services 84,663 95,294 105,347 110,606 115,644
  -11.1 12.6 10.5 5.0 4.6
Total supply 320,832 345,613 369,198 383,029 396,763
  -4.3 7.7 6.8 3.7 3.6
Exports of goods and services                                   85,458 95,999 106,602 112,263 117,466
  -10.7 12.3 11.0 5.3 4.6
Consumption 178,368 186,867 195,114 200,863 207,124
  -1.8 4.8 4.4 2.9 3.1
   Private 120,708 126,658 133,674 138,105 142,440
  -4.2 4.9 5.5 3.3 3.1
   Public                                                       57,660 60,209 61,440 62,758 64,683
  3.6 4.4 2.0 2.1 3.1
Fixed investment                                                    57,128 58,656 63,311 65,734 68,004
  0.2 2.7 7.9 3.8 3.5
   Private 45,478 47,320 50,964 53,208 55,021
  -2.2 4.1 7.7 4.4 3.4
   Public                                                       11,650 11,335 12,347 12,526 12,982
  11.1 -2.7 8.9 1.5 3.6
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy -122 4,091 4,170 4,170 4,170
% of previous year's total demand -0.4 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total demand 320,832 345,613 369,198 383,029 396,763
  -4.3 7.7 6.8 3.7 3.6
Total domestic demand 235,374 249,613 262,595 270,767 279,297
  -1.8 6.0 5.2 3.1 3.2
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   
5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
% in proportion to GDP at current prices
  2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 35.8 38.1 39.9 40.6 41.1
Exports of goods and services                                   36.2 38.4 40.4 41.2 41.8
Consumption 75.5 74.7 73.9 73.7 73.7
Private 51.1 50.6 50.7 50.7 50.7
Public 24.4 24.1 23.3 23.0 23.0
Fixed investment 24.2 23.4 24.0 24.1 24.2
Private 19.3 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.6
Public 4.9 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.6
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy, -0.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5
Total demand 135.8 138.1 139.9 140.6 141.1
Total domestic demand 99.7 99.7 99.5 99.4 99.4
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   
6. PRICES
Index 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year
  2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
Harmonised index of consumer prices 104.0 106.1 108.2 109.9 111.8
  0.4 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.8
Consumer price index 103.5 105.8 108.4 110.0 112.0
  0.3 2.2 2.4 1.5 1.8
Private consumption deflator                                          104.1 106.2 108.4 110.1 112.2
  0.5 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.9
Private investment deflator 110.8 112.1 115.4 117.5 119.5
  1.2 1.2 2.9 1.8 1.7
Exports of goods and services deflator 102.1 110.3 116.1 117.0 118.2
  -4.4 8.0 5.3 0.8 1.0
Imports of goods and services deflator 99.8 108.6 114.0 114.9 116.0
  -5.0 8.8 4.9 0.8 1.0
Value-added deflators                                                     
Value-added, gross at basic prices                                        105.9 108.8 112.2 114.0 116.2
  1.4 2.7 3.1 1.7 1.9
Private sector 105.7 109.0 112.5 114.3 116.4
  0.6 3.1 3.2 1.5 1.8
Public sector 106.8 107.9 110.6 113.1 115.4
  4.7 1.0 2.5 2.2 2.1
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   
7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
% change on previous year
  2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
Whole economy     
   Index of wage and salary earnings 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
   Compensation per employee 0.8 4.6 3.2 2.4 2.3
   Unit labour costs 1.6 3.3 1.8 1.5 1.4
   Labour productivity per employed person -0.9 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.9
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   
8. LABOUR MARKET
1,000 persons and % change on previous year
  2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)
Employed persons 2,483 2,540 2,572 2,589 2,600
  -2.0 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.4
Unemployed persons 208 212 197 184 184
  13.5 1.9 -7.2 -6.3 -0.3
Labour force 2,691 2,751 2,768 2,773 2,783
  -1.0 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.4
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,421 3,417 3,413 3,412 3,411
  -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Labour force participation rate, %                                                      65.1 66.8 67.4 67.7 68.1
Unemployment rate, % 7.8 7.7 7.1 6.6 6.6
Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 70.7 72.0 72.8 73.3 73.6
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   
9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURE, BALANCE AND DEBT
% TO GDP
  2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
General government revenue 51.9 52.3 51.7 51.7 51.6
General government expenditure 57.3 55.2 53.6 52.9 52.8
General government primary expenditure 56.7 54.6 53.1 52.5 52.4
General government interest expenditure 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
General government net lending -5.5 -2.9 -1.9 -1.3 -1.2
Central government -5.5 -3.4 -2.4 -1.7 -1.5
Local government 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6
Social security funds 0.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0
General government primary balance -4.8 -2.4 -1.4 -0.8 -0.7
General government structural balance -4.1 -2.1 -2.3 -2.0 -2.0
General government debt (EDP) 69.5 66.9 66.5 67.1 67.5
Central government debt 52.9 51.3 51.4 52.1 52.5
Tax ratio 42.1 42.6 42.0 41.9 41.9
Current prices, EUR billion     
General government net lending -12.9 -7.3 -5.0 -3.5 -3.3
Central government -13.1 -8.6 -6.4 -4.6 -4.2
Local government 0.0 -0.7 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7
Social security funds 0.1 2.0 2.8 2.7 2.7
General government debt (EDP) 164.2 167.5 175.5 182.8 189.8
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   
10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
EUR billion
  2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 85.5 96.0 106.6 112.3 117.5
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 84.7 95.3 105.3 110.6 115.6
Goods and services account (SNA) 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.8
   % to GDP 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 4.0 5.7 1.5 1.5 1.5
Current transfers, net -2.8 -2.7 -2.7 -2.8 -3.1
Current account, net 2.0 36.5 0.0 0.4 0.2
Net lending, % to GDP     
  Private sector 6.3 4.4 1.9 1.4 1.2
  Public sector -5.5 -2.9 -1.9 -1.3 -1.2
Current account, % to GDP 0.8 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.1
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   
11. INTEREST RATES
%     
  2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
3-month Euribor1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0
Average interest rate on new loan drawdowns2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9
Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 1.3 1.2  1.2 1.3 1.5
Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 0.0 0.0  0.0 0.0 0.1
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1
1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2Finnish credit institutions’ loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts, credit card credits and repurchase agreements).
3Finnish credit institutions’ deposits from households and non-financial corporations.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   
12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
The Eurosystem staff projections
  2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP, % change on previous year     
World -2.8 5.9 4.4 3.8 3.4
USA -3.4 5.5 4.2 3.0 2.5
Euro area  -6.5 5.1 4.2 2.9 1.6
Japan -4.7 1.7 2.6 1.3 1.0
Imports, % change on previous year     
World  -8.3 10.2 4.5 4.9 3.7
USA -8.9 13.3 5.0 5.0 5.3
Euro area  -9.4 7.0 6.1 6.4 2.9
Japan -7.3 6.0 4.3 5.2 4.4
Index, 2015 = 100, and % change on previous year     
Import volume in Finnish export markets 105.7 115.3 120.6 127.1 131.4
  -8.4 9.0 4.6 5.4 3.4
Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, national currencies 105.4 115.3 119.9 120.8 122.0
  -1.5 9.4 4.0 0.7 1.0
Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, in euro 97.0 105.5 111.3 112.1 113.2
  -3.9 8.8 5.5 0.7 1.0
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 121.2 173.2 179.1 175.5 172.6
  1.8 42.9 3.4 -2.0 -1.7
Oil price, USD per barrel1 64.3 108.4 117.1 109.3 104.8
  -33.9 68.5 8.0 -6.7 -4.1
Finland's nominal competitiveness indicator2 109.2 109.9 108.3 108.3 108.3
  2.5 0.6 -1.4 0.0 0.0
US dollar value of one euro1 1.14 1.18 1.13 1.13 1.13
  2.0 3.6 -4.3 0.0 0.0
1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2Narrow plus euro area, 1999Q1 = 100
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   
13. Current and June 2021 forecast
  2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP, % change 3.5 2.6 1.5 1.3
June 2021 2.9 3.0 1.3  
Inflation (HICP), % 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.8
June 2021 1.7 1.4 1.6  
Current account, % to GDP 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.1
June 2021 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2  
General government net lending, % to GDP -2.9 -1.9 -1.3 -1.2
June 2021 -4.4 -2.5 -2.2  
General government debt (EDP), % to GDP 66.9 66.5 67.1 67.5
June 2021 71.4 71.6 72.8  
Unemployment rate, % 7.7 7.1 6.6 6.6
June 2021 7.7 6.9 6.7  
Employment rate, % 72.0 72.8 73.3 73.6
June 2021 71.4 72.2 72.7  
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