The more debt households take on during an economic upswing, the more likely they are to cut consumption when the economy begins to run out of steam.

Finns have consumed at levels above their incomes, accumulating more debt than new wealth. Household saving is nevertheless similar to that of the other Nordic countries.

Global demand, improved competitiveness and favourable financing conditions will support growth. GDP growth forecasts for 2018–2020 stand at 2,9%, 2,2%, and 1,7%. Inflation will remain close to 1% over the years 2018–2019 before gathering pace and reaching 1.5% in 2020.

Throughout 2016–2018 the Finnish economy will grow by around 1% per annum and investment will finally begin to increase. With exports still sluggish, however, growth will depend on domestic demand. Inflation will be slow throughout the forecast period.

Before the current recession, Finland was closing the gap on Europe’s wealthiest small economies but is now falling ever further behind.

The ageing households spend less of any additional income on consumption than the young. Population ageing may weaken the impact of interest rate changes on the economy.