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Assessment of Public Finances

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Financial Stability Assessment

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29 charts

Extra-euro area imports and exports by product group, 2021

Import prices and energy prices in Germany

Share of natural gas in final energy consumption, 2020

Higher energy import prices have eroded the euro area’s terms of trade

Import prices in the euro area

Estimation results of the impact of an import price shock on euro area real GDP

Estimation results of the impact of an import price shock on euro area consumer price inflation

Euro area energy dependency, 2020

The rise in energy prices has been steep, and the markets expect prices to remain high

The euro area is dependent on energy imports

Euro area real GDP exceeded the pre-pandemic level

Production and demand expectations for the next few months down from previous year but still far short of crisis-time levels

Supply chain disruptions have partially eased

Fiscal sustainability risks had already increased significantly before the energy crisis

Energy prices not the only cause of higher inflation

Annual wage growth in negotiated settlements has so far remained fairly moderate

Market-based inflation expectations close to 2%

High inflation is expected to continue for longer than previously thought

Uncertainty over the inflation rate for 2023 has grown since the spring

Unexpected developments in the economy have been evident as major forecast errors in recent forecasts