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Analysis

Assessment of Public Finances

Blog

Editorial

Financial Stability Assessment

Forecast

Monetary Policy Review

Simply Short

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41 charts

The unsecured overnight interbank EONIA rate has tracked the ECB's deposit facility rate since the crisis

Interest rate cuts are transmitted to bank retail deposit and lending rates through money market rates

The flattening of the yield curve and its decline into negative territory has compressed banks' net interest margin

Profitability improved as net interest income stopped contracting and credit losses began to shrink

Uncertainty surrounding economic policy on the rise especially in China

The fiscal adjustment needed according to the European Commission to achieve a 60% debt-to-GDP ratio by 2033

The euro area aggregate public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to continue to contract

Euro area inflation expectations have recently declined also by survey-based measures

Since the beginning of September, US tariff increases cover roughly 70% of imports from China

Trade policy-related uncertainty has increased

China's market share of US imports has decreased

United States' market share of Chinese imports has decreased

Credit risk prices have remained generally moderate, despite the increases caused by the escalating trade dispute

Estimated effects of tariffs in place

Risk scenario: trade war escalates, effects spill over to financial markets

Banks' holdings with the Eurosystem

Growth rates for world trade and industrial production have slowed in 2019

Growth in services remained much more stable than in manufacturing

Outlook for both exports and investment has deteriorated on both sides of the Atlantic

Broad-based slowdown in growth in 2020