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43 charts

Liquid assets in Russia’s National Wealth Fund as a share of GDP have fallen over the past five years

YKHI-inflaatio alaerineen (kesäkuun 2025 BMPE-ennuste)

A fictitious example of a cross-check of the baseline forecast against conditional model forecasts (year-on-year, %)

Finnish GDP growth and the structural shocks driving it, as seen through the lens of the Aino model (BMPE 2023 December forecast)

Updating the forecast with the Aino model involves several steps

Bank of Finland’s forecasting hub: The core Aino model and integrated elements

Aino model structure

Finland’s cost competitiveness will remain virtually unchanged

Earnings indicators point to an annual wage growth of 3% on average

Inflation will pick up slightly towards the end of the forecast period

Potential output will grow slowly

Economic resources will be underutilised in 2025–2027

Unemployment will decline slowly but employment will grow steadily

The unemployment rate is slowly declining but will remain above the structural unemployment rate

Debt ratio will rise substantially in 2025

Public finances will remain deeply in deficit

Current account will remain close to balance in the forecast period

Growth in export markets will support Finland’s exports

Investment outlook will start to improve gradually

Private consumption growth will pick up and the savings rate will fall