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Analysis

Assessment of Public Finances

Blog

Editorial

Financial Stability Assessment

Forecast

Monetary Policy Review

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103 charts

Slightly contractionary fiscal policy will reduce fiscal deficits in euro area in 2023–2024

GDP growth in the four major euro area economies

Volume of manufacturing output in Germany and other major euro area economies

Euro area confidence indicators have weakened

Weaker economic outlook is pushing down raw material prices

Europe’s natural gas reserves are larger than in 2022, supporting ability to cope with the coming winter

Energy prices have declined substantially from crisis levels but remain above normal

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has decreased significantly in recent years

Growth in loan stock at a standstill

Current rate increase cycle in the euro area is exceptional compared with previous cycles

Policy rate increases have been exceptionally rapid and simultaneous worldwide

SPF inflation forecasts, longer term horizon

Distributions of inflation expectations provide important information about expectation anchoring

Monetary policy tightening has restrained inflation expectations from rising excessively

Employment rate (20–64-year-olds) dips during recession

Inflation clearly slowing – by more than core inflation

GDP growth near zero

Recovery from the recession will be slow

Monetary policy tightening by European Central Bank will bring inflation down to targeted level

US money market rates, Fed funds target range and level of reserves