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85 charts

Russian GDP has been strongly supported by the oil and gas sector this year

Russian crude oil has found new markets in Asia

Government bond risk premia have increased compared with Germany

Long-term real interest rates have increased in 2022 both in the euro area and the United States

Changes in the short-term interest rate and the expected 10-year government bond yield are primarily explained by economic shocks other than the ECB’s monetary policy surprises

Expectations of monetary policy tightening emerged earlier in the United States than in the euro area

Market-based inflation expectations in the euro area and the United States

Bank lending rates have increased since monetary policy began to be tightened

Unexpected developments in the economy have been evident as major forecast errors in recent forecasts

Uncertainty over the inflation rate for 2023 has grown since the spring

High inflation is expected to continue for longer than previously thought

Annual wage growth in negotiated settlements has so far remained fairly moderate

Fiscal sustainability risks had already increased significantly before the energy crisis

Production and demand expectations for the next few months down from previous year but still far short of crisis-time levels

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