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Analysis

Assessment of Public Finances

Blog

Editorial

Financial Stability Assessment

Forecast

Monetary Policy Review

Simply Short

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902 charts

Monetary policy tightening has restrained inflation expectations from rising excessively

Distributions of inflation expectations provide important information about expectation anchoring

SPF inflation forecasts, longer term horizon

Policy rate increases have been exceptionally rapid and simultaneous worldwide

Current rate increase cycle in the euro area is exceptional compared with previous cycles

Growth in loan stock at a standstill

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has decreased significantly in recent years

Energy prices have declined substantially from crisis levels but remain above normal

Europe’s natural gas reserves are larger than in 2022, supporting ability to cope with the coming winter

Weaker economic outlook is pushing down raw material prices

Euro area confidence indicators have weakened

Volume of manufacturing output in Germany and other major euro area economies

GDP growth in the four major euro area economies

Slightly contractionary fiscal policy will reduce fiscal deficits in euro area in 2023–2024

Recovery from the recession will be slow

GDP growth near zero

Inflation clearly slowing – by more than core inflation

Employment rate (20–64-year-olds) dips during recession

Monetary policy tightening by European Central Bank will bring inflation down to targeted level

Money market interest raters in a corridor under scarce and ample reserves