The ECB’s new monetary policy strategy is aimed at inflation of 2% over the medium term. The target is symmetrical. Both negative and positive deviations from this target are seen as equally undesirable.
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Open and transparent communication is a win-win situation for monetary policy. It helps the private sector make better economic decisions and allows the central bank to achieve its price stability objective more efficiently.
The period 2004 - 2017 under review was particularly challenging for forecasting.
The expanded asset purchase programme has also had a significant effect on price developments: in its absence, inflation in 2016 would have been much slower.
The ageing households spend less of any additional income on consumption than the young. Population ageing may weaken the impact of interest rate changes on the economy.