Jarkko Kivistö

Latest articles and blogs

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  Finland’s public debt sustainability and fiscal consolidation needs

  Finland’s general government revenue and expenditure are chronically out of balance. Population ageing is adding to health and social services spending and at the same time public debt service payments are growing. A fiscal correction will require significant spending cuts and tax increases in future parliamentary terms. The Bank of Finland estimates that the sustainability gap is about 4% of GDP.

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  Long-term sustainability of the public finances

  The sustainability gap estimate tells us by how much the general government fiscal balance needs to be permanently adjusted so that public debt does not grow out of control in the future. The updated estimate is 3.5% relative to GDP.

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  Sustainability of Finland’s public finances

  Finland’s debt-to-GDP ratio doubled after the financial crisis. This trajectory is now on the decline, but population aging will raise public expenditure, and threatens to tilt the debt ratio upwards.