Articles on the economy
Russia’s decision to start a war in Ukraine has eroded its economic growth potential and deteriorated its business environment. These problems will remain long after sanctions are lifted.
Russia’s government finances are very sensitive to changes in global oil prices. Last year, oil & gas earnings accounted for about 30 % of total federal revenues and 16 % of consolidated government revenues.
Although Russia’s output growth has slowed in recent months, the official preliminary estimate puts third-quarter on-year GDP growth at 3 %. We should not put too much emphasis on the exact number due the heightened uncertainty of Russian statistics since the invasion of Ukraine.
The above headline aptly summarizes the preliminary 2025–2027 budget framework submitted to the Duma in late September.
The discontinuation of trade with Russia has not had a major impact on Finland’s economy as a whole. The collapse of exports to Russia has not reduced overall exports in the case of many goods, because exports to other countries have increased.
Russia’s future growth potential and living conditions are eroded by government spending and investment focused on war-related production and infrastructure.
A wide coalition of countries have imposed economic sanctions on Russia for its brutal aggression against Ukraine. The sanctions regime has impaired – but not exhausted – Russia’s financial and technological ability to make war.
Key aims of the sanctions are to limit its financial and military capabilities to wage war.
Russia’s oil exports have decreased only marginally in volume since it began the war in Ukraine. While the export volume to countries of the European Union has fallen somewhat, Russia has found new markets in India, China and Türkiye.
Russia’s war in Ukraine is, above all, a massive human tragedy and an assault on Ukraine’s economy and society. But Russia, too, will end up paying a high price for its cruel decision to wage war.
Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine has affected the Russian economy through various channels. There has been a substantial decline in imports due to the heightened uncertainty and the international sanctions prompted by the war.
The global economy and global trade flows have been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. The trade collapse in the second quarter of 2020 was even more severe than during the trough of the global financial crisis in 2009.
Russia imposed strict lockdown measures similar to many countries, resulting in sharp reductions in demand and production.