A shortage of materials and containers is affecting the economy worldwide, and hence also the Finnish economy. The supply-side disruptions are slowing growth and driving faster inflation.
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In the absence of supply bottlenecks, Finland’s GDP would grow 0.5 of a percentage point faster in 2021. We assume the supply-side disruptions will be smoothed out after 2022, and will not leave long-term scars on the economy.
Consumer confidence has long been depressed by weak assessments of the outlook for the Finnish economy. Changes in consumer confidence can foreshadow a turning point in the economy and they therefore attract close attention.
The Finnish, Swedish and German economies weakened almost simultaneously in March. The latest indicators show signs of a pick-up, but uncertainty will slow the recovery.
Global uncertainties are weakening investment growth in Finland. A similar effect is being exerted by structural factors in the domestic economy.
Abundant construction in the Helsinki metropolitan area has put a brake on apartment prices.