Bank lending conditions provide early barometer of cyclical shifts in Finnish economy
Data on the demand for and supply of bank loans in Finland is obtained four times a year through the euro area bank lending survey.
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Supply bottlenecks are having wide-spread impacts on the economy
A shortage of materials and containers is affecting the economy worldwide, and hence also the Finnish economy. The supply-side disruptions are slowing growth and driving faster inflation.
Alternative scenario: Supply-side disruptions slow growth also in Finland
In the absence of supply bottlenecks, Finland’s GDP would grow 0.5 of a percentage point faster in 2021. We assume the supply-side disruptions will be smoothed out after 2022, and will not leave long-term scars on the economy.
Consumer confidence foreshadows developments in the economy
Consumer confidence has long been depressed by weak assessments of the outlook for the Finnish economy. Changes in consumer confidence can foreshadow a turning point in the economy and they therefore attract close attention.
Short-term economic outlook has deteriorated drastically in Finland, Sweden and Germany
The Finnish, Swedish and German economies weakened almost simultaneously in March. The latest indicators show signs of a pick-up, but uncertainty will slow the recovery.
Investment weakened by uncertainty and the structure of the Finnish economy
Global uncertainties are weakening investment growth in Finland. A similar effect is being exerted by structural factors in the domestic economy.
What factors influence house prices and residential construction?
Abundant construction in the Helsinki metropolitan area has put a brake on apartment prices.