Only very subdued growth in sight
There was a shift in the global economic cycle towards slower growth during the first half of 2018. The trade war and Brexit increase the risk of recession.
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The trade war has significantly weakened the global economy
According to the Bank of Finland’s model simulations, the tariff rises already introduced will serve to slow global growth by 0.7 of a percentage point.
The Eurosystem’s two-tier system for remunerating excess liquidity holdings
The aim of the two-tier system for remunerating excess liquidity holdings is to promote monetary policy transmission via banks to firms and households. The system is part of the ECB Governing Council’s broad package of monetary accommodation.
Slightly negative central bank interest rates ease financial conditions
Negative interest rates have been an integral part of the ECB's overall monetary accommodation for just over five years now. Research indicates that the advantages of slightly negative interest rates outweigh the disadvantages.
Only very subdued growth in sight
Global growth has slowed substantially during the course of the current year. One cause of this has been the trade war between the United States and China. Brexit, too, has added to the uncertainty surrounding the future course of the economy.
Euro area productivity growth could slow further in the event of a downturn
Euro area productivity growth has been slowing since the turn of the millennium. Economic policy that bolsters stability in the economy is a vital factor for productivity growth.
How can we avoid a negative equilibrium of low growth and low inflation?
Slower-than-target inflation and a persistent decline in inflation expectations are key challenges for monetary policy. A negative equilibrium of prolonged low inflation and zero interest rates would fundamentally weaken monetary policy’s room for manoeuvre in balancing fluctuations in the economic cycle.