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Forecast for the Finnish Economy, June 2019

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Do wages contribute to flexibility and competitiveness in a monetary union?

The method by which agreement is reached on wages in the Member States participating in EMU has a particular significance for employment and growth. Optimal wage formation defines the development of competitiveness.

Cost-competitiveness remains at a better level than before

Finland’s cost-competitiveness has improved in recent years. From the perspective of employment there would still be room for further improvement.

Manufacturing is not fostering labour productivity growth as it did before

The pace of labour productivity growth in Finland has faded. This is attributable to lacklustre productivity development in manufacturing as well as the increasing dominance of services in the economy.

Slowing growth in the shadow of global uncertainties

Finland’s economic growth will be slower during the next three years. Growth has also slowed in the euro area and elsewhere around the world. However, there are still possibilities for growth in the Finnish economy.

Improvements in employment held back by population ageing

Even if the employment rate were to remain unchanged, the number of employed would decline by 15,000 over the years 2019–2021.

Raising the employment rate to 75% will require much faster economic growth

If economic growth in the immediate years ahead does not exceed around 1.5%, achievement of the 75% employment target is unlikely.

Measures of core inflation filter out temporary price changes

Short-lived volatility in consumer prices make it harder to monitor price pressures within the economy. Measures of core inflation describe price developments that are not driven by temporary factors.

What factors influence house prices and residential construction?

Abundant construction in the Helsinki metropolitan area has put a brake on apartment prices.

Most recent statistical data point to faster-than-expected moderation of economic growth

Economist robot currently forecasts a marked slowdown in growth. The forecast has weakened substantially during the spring with the release of new statistical data.