Growth continues, outlook more moderate
The fastest stage of growth in the euro area looks to have passed, but momentum remains strong. Uncertainty is being fuelled by protectionism and Italy’s domestic economic policy.
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Trade policy tensions casting shadow on economic horizon
Protectionist measures may, at worst, significantly dampen global economic growth. This effect could prove all the more substantial if confidence is weakened and investment is held back.
Labour-force participation on the rise in euro area – United States trending in opposite direction
In the euro area, labour market participation among the working-age population has caught up with that of the United States. Yet a decline in the participation of especially young people remains a cause for concern in both regions.
Monetary policy to be normalised gradually and in a predictable manner
There are more question marks over monetary policy normalisation than there are over traditional monetary tightening.
TARGET2 balances – a truth more boring than fiction?
The ECB’s Expanded Asset Purchase Programme has recently raised TARGET2 balances, but the reason for the increase is now different than during the sovereign debt crisis.
Monetary policy normalisation to proceed carefully and with measured pace
In times of uncertainty, prudence is justified in the normalisation of monetary policy.
Secular stagnation: A false alarm in the euro area?
Concerns about a protracted period of low growth soon followed the recovery from the Great Recession. Recent strength in the euro area economy does not exclude the risk of secular stagnation.