Bank of Finland articles on the economy
Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2019 - Economic outlook for the global economy
Published 3 Oct 2019
pdf, 528 kB
Bank of Finland Bulletin 3/2019 - Economic forecast for the Finnish economy
Published 11 Jun 2019
pdf, 7.32 MB
How can we avoid a negative equilibrium of low growth and low inflation?3 October 2019, Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2019
Slower-than-target inflation and a persistent decline in inflation expectations are key challenges for monetary policy. A negative equilibrium of prolonged low inflation and zero interest rates would fundamentally weaken monetary policy’s room for manoeuvre in balancing fluctuations in the economic cycle.
Public finances need more room for manoeuvre19 June 2019, Bank of Finland Bulletin 3/2019
Active measures to strengthen the public finances should be taken when the economy is in good heart.
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The fastest stage of growth in the euro area looks to have passed, but momentum remains strong. Uncertainty is being fuelled by protectionism and Italy’s domestic economic policy.
Protectionist measures may, at worst, significantly dampen global economic growth. This effect could prove all the more substantial if confidence is weakened and investment is held back.
In the euro area, labour market participation among the working-age population has caught up with that of the United States. Yet a decline in the participation of especially young people remains a cause for concern in both regions.
There are more question marks over monetary policy normalisation than there are over traditional monetary tightening.
The ECB’s Expanded Asset Purchase Programme has recently raised TARGET2 balances, but the reason for the increase is now different than during the sovereign debt crisis.
In times of uncertainty, prudence is justified in the normalisation of monetary policy.
Concerns about a protracted period of low growth soon followed the recovery from the Great Recession. Recent strength in the euro area economy does not exclude the risk of secular stagnation.
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