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Forecast for the Finnish Economy, December 2017

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Forecast: Upswing more broadly based – Improved changes for balanced growth in Finland

The Bank of Finland forecasts that Finland’s GDP will grow 3.1% in 2017, 2.5% in 2018 and 1.5% per annum in 2019–2020. Growth will be broadly based and amplified by exports. A more positive current account will lay a foundation for sustainable growth.

Overall positive sentiment will not resolve structural problems in public finances

Population ageing will push up public expenditure at the same time as the contraction in the working-age population reins in economic growth. The sustainability will remain around 3% of GDP.

A new method to measure structural unemployment via labour market flows

According to a new structural unemployment indicator based on labour market flows developed by the Bank of Finland, unemployment in Finland is currently close to its structural level.

The influence of age, gender and education on labour supply in Finland

Education and labour market structures are important for decisions on and opportunities of employment particularly for young women and older workers.

New tools for monitoring the economy

Economic decisions increasingly require the support of real-time information. Help can be derived from short-term forecasting models (nowcasting), which are suitable for processing continuously updated data and using it to form an overall picture of the current state of the economy.

National Accounts for the third quarter of 2017: Economy growing across a broad front

During the third quarter of 2017, Finland’s GDP increased by 3%, private consumption by 2.1% and public consumption by 1.8% year on year. Investments increased by 9.3%.

Forecast assumptions: Accelerating global growth raises price of oil

The global economy and world trade continue to grow strongly. In many countries, an expansionary economic policy is supporting growth.

Sensitivity analysis using alternative outlooks for the global economy

International factors have a major impact on the outlook for the Finnish economy.

Finland's cyclical expansion bolstered by investment and export growth

Investment growth has been bolstered by e.g. the quickening of domestic demand and construction activity as well as monetary policy. There has been a substantial increase in exports, for example to Germany and China.

Higher education a solid currency in Finland

Well-educated people typically earn more than those with a lower level of education. Education also improves earnings by enhancing a person’s employment prospects.

Editorial: Growth potential and public finances need further strengthening

In order to sustain economic growth and improve the employment situation over the long term, it is vital that Finland’s cost-competitiveness continue its favourable trajectory into the coming years. Meanwhile, the situation in the public finances can be eased by implementing structural reforms.

Forecast tables for 2017–2020 (December 2017)

Forecast tables for the Finnish economy in 2017–2020.