Bank of Finland articles on the economy
Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2019 - Economic outlook for the global economy
Published 3 Oct 2019
pdf, 528 kB
Bank of Finland Bulletin 3/2019 - Economic forecast for the Finnish economy
Published 11 Jun 2019
pdf, 7.32 MB
How can we avoid a negative equilibrium of low growth and low inflation?3 October 2019, Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2019
Slower-than-target inflation and a persistent decline in inflation expectations are key challenges for monetary policy. A negative equilibrium of prolonged low inflation and zero interest rates would fundamentally weaken monetary policy’s room for manoeuvre in balancing fluctuations in the economic cycle.
Public finances need more room for manoeuvre19 June 2019, Bank of Finland Bulletin 3/2019
Active measures to strengthen the public finances should be taken when the economy is in good heart.
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The Bank of Finland forecasts that Finland’s GDP will grow 3.1% in 2017, 2.5% in 2018 and 1.5% per annum in 2019–2020. Growth will be broadly based and amplified by exports. A more positive current account will lay a foundation for sustainable growth.
Population ageing will push up public expenditure at the same time as the contraction in the working-age population reins in economic growth. The sustainability will remain around 3% of GDP.
According to a new structural unemployment indicator based on labour market flows developed by the Bank of Finland, unemployment in Finland is currently close to its structural level.
Education and labour market structures are important for decisions on and opportunities of employment particularly for young women and older workers.
Economic decisions increasingly require the support of real-time information. Help can be derived from short-term forecasting models (nowcasting), which are suitable for processing continuously updated data and using it to form an overall picture of the current state of the economy.
Well-educated people typically earn more than those with a lower level of education. Education also improves earnings by enhancing a person’s employment prospects.
Investment growth has been bolstered by e.g. the quickening of domestic demand and construction activity as well as monetary policy. There has been a substantial increase in exports, for example to Germany and China.
During the third quarter of 2017, Finland’s GDP increased by 3%, private consumption by 2.1% and public consumption by 1.8% year on year. Investments increased by 9.3%.
The global economy and world trade continue to grow strongly. In many countries, an expansionary economic policy is supporting growth.
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