Forecast: Finland grows, and gathers more debt The economic upswing in Finland has strengthened, bolstered by the improved performance of exports. Despite the improved growth, Finland’s external indebtedness will continue to grow. GDP is forecast to grow 2.1% in 2017, 1.7% in 2018 and 1.4% in 2019. Share Email Twitter Facebook Linkedin Google+
Household savings historically low Savings are historically low on account of the low level of interest rates and strong consumer confidence. Households’ continued accumulation of debt does, however, entail risks for the economy. Share Email Twitter Facebook Linkedin Google+
How can we measure the economy in the digital era? Digital technology has improved our well-being in ways that are difficult to measure in monetary terms. Not all the effects of digitalisation are fully reflected in GDP. Share Email Twitter Facebook Linkedin Google+
Finland struggling to defend its market share on rapidly expanding markets The global market share of Finnish exports has been declining continuously ever since the financial crisis. To what extent is the decline in market share explained by the structure of goods exports? Share Email Twitter Facebook Linkedin Google+
Estimation of structural unemployment important, but complicated In both the United States and the euro area, economic growth has picked up and the labour market has strengthened without the build-up of significant wage and price pressures. This raises the question as to how far the economy can still be from its potential output. Share Email Twitter Facebook Linkedin Google+
Profitable firms provide employment and pay higher wages The few ‘superstars’ of high productivity and profitability stand out in the large mass of firms. A one-size-fits-all economic policy is unsuitable in an environment of considerable heterogeneity in productivity and profitability. Share Email Twitter Facebook Linkedin Google+
Lack of investment weighed on Finnish exports Demand for Finnish exports may have been weakened by the current low level of investment in the advanced economies, especially in Europe. Share Email Twitter Facebook Linkedin Google+
Forecast assumptions: Global economic environment favours growth The political uncertainty in both the euro area and the United States has eased, providing a firm foundation for continued economic expansion. Share Email Twitter Facebook Linkedin Google+
Alternative scenario: What if growth in exports and productivity were actually higher? Exports and productivity could grow faster than estimated in the Bank of Finland’s baseline forecast. However, a temporary period of faster growth would not suffice to resolve the problems with fiscal sustainability. Share Email Twitter Facebook Linkedin Google+