Bank of Finland articles on the economy
Bank of Finland Bulletin 5/2019 - Economic forecast for the Finnish economy
Published 17 Dec 2019
pdf, 2.46 MB
Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2019 - Economic outlook for the global economy
Published 3 Oct 2019
pdf, 3.44 MB
Finland's economic transition still incomplete17 December 2019, Bank of Finland Bulletin 5/2019
The Finnish economy is still going through a period of transition in which it has to adjust to two large structural realignments.
How can we avoid a negative equilibrium of low gorwth and low inflation?3 October 2019, Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2019
Slower-than-target inflation and a persistent decline in inflation expectations are key challenges for monetary policy. A negative equilibrium of prolonged low inflation and zero interest rates would fundamentally weaken monetary policy’s room for manoeuvre in balancing fluctuations in the economic cycle.
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The economic upswing in Finland has strengthened, bolstered by the improved performance of exports. Despite the improved growth, Finland’s external indebtedness will continue to grow. GDP is forecast to grow 2.1% in 2017, 1.7% in 2018 and 1.4% in 2019.
Savings are historically low on account of the low level of interest rates and strong consumer confidence. Households’ continued accumulation of debt does, however, entail risks for the economy.
Digital technology has improved our well-being in ways that are difficult to measure in monetary terms. Not all the effects of digitalisation are fully reflected in GDP.
The global market share of Finnish exports has been declining continuously ever since the financial crisis. To what extent is the decline in market share explained by the structure of goods exports?
In both the United States and the euro area, economic growth has picked up and the labour market has strengthened without the build-up of significant wage and price pressures. This raises the question as to how far the economy can still be from its potential output.
The few ‘superstars’ of high productivity and profitability stand out in the large mass of firms. A one-size-fits-all economic policy is unsuitable in an environment of considerable heterogeneity in productivity and profitability.
Demand for Finnish exports may have been weakened by the current low level of investment in the advanced economies, especially in Europe.
The political uncertainty in both the euro area and the United States has eased, providing a firm foundation for continued economic expansion.
Exports and productivity could grow faster than estimated in the Bank of Finland’s baseline forecast. However, a temporary period of faster growth would not suffice to resolve the problems with fiscal sustainability.
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