Bank of Finland articles on the economy
Bank of Finland Bulletin 3/2020 - Economic forecast for the Finnish economy
Published 9 Jun 2020
pdf, 654 kB
Bank of Finland Bulletin 2/2020 - Financial stability
Published 20 May 2020
pdf, 1.70 MB
The worst-case scenario in the corona spring did not materialise, but we will still need stamina for the long haul9 June 2020, Bank of Finland Bulletin 3/2020
Healthy public finances provide an irreplaceable shield when we hit hard times. It is important to focus the fiscal policy stimulus effectively and take forward structural reforms. Finland’s labour market, too, has a vital role to play as the economy enters the recovery phase.
Regulation has strengthened the financial system’s resilience5 May 2020, Bank of Finland Bulletin 2/2020
Financial institutions' solvency and liquidity positions have been strengthened since the global financial crisis. A well-functioning banking sector together with government relief measures will bolster the economy's outset for growth once the crisis subsides.
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The expanded asset purchase programme has also had a significant effect on price developments: in its absence, inflation in 2016 would have been much slower.
Industrial profitability has been linked to fluctuations in export demand, but over the long term it has also followed relative wage developments. The chemical industry has emerged as the most profitable. Most sectors within the metal industry have shown weakened profitability.
The European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) has issued a warning to Finland concerning the vulnerabilities related to household indebtedness and lending for house purchase. There are, however, no threats to the stability of the Finnish financial system in the short term.
A halt in further growth of the debt ratio looks possible in the medium term. However, the sustainability of the public finances remains unresolved.
The global economy is forecast to grow a good 3% per annum in 2017–2019, slightly faster than in 2016.
Global trends in international trade and technological advances will shape output and employment structures. Accelerating automation raises concerns over a long-term reduction in work, falling wages and increasing inequality.
The latest quarterly national accounts give a better picture of GDP developments in 2016 than the previously published statistical data.
The Finnish economy has returned to growth, driven by private consumption and investment. GDP will grow 1.3% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018 and 2019.
It will become harder to balance the public finances in the future if the global economic headwinds gather pace.
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