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The global economy is forecast to grow a good 3% per annum in 2017–2019, slightly faster than in 2016.

The expanded asset purchase programme has also had a significant effect on price developments: in its absence, inflation in 2016 would have been much slower.

The Finnish economy has returned to growth, driven by private consumption and investment. GDP will grow 1.3% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018 and 2019.

Industrial profitability has been linked to fluctuations in export demand, but over the long term it has also followed relative wage developments. The chemical industry has emerged as the most profitable. Most sectors within the metal industry have shown weakened profitability.

It will become harder to balance the public finances in the future if the global economic headwinds gather pace.

Global trends in international trade and technological advances will shape output and employment structures. Accelerating automation raises concerns over a long-term reduction in work, falling wages and increasing inequality.

The latest quarterly national accounts give a better picture of GDP developments in 2016 than the previously published statistical data.

A halt in further growth of the debt ratio looks possible in the medium term. However, the sustainability of the public finances remains unresolved.

The European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) has issued a warning to Finland concerning the vulnerabilities related to household indebtedness and lending for house purchase. There are, however, no threats to the stability of the Finnish financial system in the short term.

After a prolonged period of weakness, the Finnish economy has begun to recover. When the economy develops the capacity to renew itself in such a way that productivity improves and employment opportunities are generated, the growth outlook will improve. At the same time the risk of increasing marginalisation and lack of opportunities will be reduced.

See forecast tables for the Finnish economy in 2017–2019.