Bank of Finland articles on the economy
Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2018 - Monetary policy and the global economy
Published 18 Oct 2018
pdf, 5.59 MB
Bank of Finland Bulletin 3/2018 - Economic forecast for the Finnish economy
Published 6 Jul 2018
pdf, 3.16 MB
Monetary policy normalisation to proceed carefully and with measured pace4 Oct 2018, Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2018
In times of uncertainty, prudence is justified in the normalisation of monetary policy.
Monetary policy remains accommodative, net asset purchases about to end6 July 2018, Bank of Finland Bulletin 3/2018
Finland’s public finances have gathered strength; the general government deficit has shrunk and the ratio of public debt to GDP has begun to contract. Yet determined efforts are still required to address the challenges to fiscal sustainability in the long term.
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The expanded asset purchase programme has also had a significant effect on price developments: in its absence, inflation in 2016 would have been much slower.
Industrial profitability has been linked to fluctuations in export demand, but over the long term it has also followed relative wage developments. The chemical industry has emerged as the most profitable. Most sectors within the metal industry have shown weakened profitability.
The European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) has issued a warning to Finland concerning the vulnerabilities related to household indebtedness and lending for house purchase. There are, however, no threats to the stability of the Finnish financial system in the short term.
A halt in further growth of the debt ratio looks possible in the medium term. However, the sustainability of the public finances remains unresolved.
The global economy is forecast to grow a good 3% per annum in 2017–2019, slightly faster than in 2016.
Global trends in international trade and technological advances will shape output and employment structures. Accelerating automation raises concerns over a long-term reduction in work, falling wages and increasing inequality.
The latest quarterly national accounts give a better picture of GDP developments in 2016 than the previously published statistical data.
The Finnish economy has returned to growth, driven by private consumption and investment. GDP will grow 1.3% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018 and 2019.
It will become harder to balance the public finances in the future if the global economic headwinds gather pace.
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