Bank of Finland articles on the economy
Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2019 - Economic outlook for the global economy
Published 3 Oct 2019
pdf, 528 kB
Bank of Finland Bulletin 3/2019 - Economic forecast for the Finnish economy
Published 11 Jun 2019
pdf, 7.32 MB
How can we avoid a negative equilibrium of low growth and low inflation?3 October 2019, Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2019
Slower-than-target inflation and a persistent decline in inflation expectations are key challenges for monetary policy. A negative equilibrium of prolonged low inflation and zero interest rates would fundamentally weaken monetary policy’s room for manoeuvre in balancing fluctuations in the economic cycle.
Public finances need more room for manoeuvre19 June 2019, Bank of Finland Bulletin 3/2019
Active measures to strengthen the public finances should be taken when the economy is in good heart.
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Throughout 2016–2018 the Finnish economy will grow by around 1% per annum and investment will finally begin to increase. With exports still sluggish, however, growth will depend on domestic demand. Inflation will be slow throughout the forecast period.
House prices in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area have long been rising faster than in the rest of Finland. Developments have been influenced by regulatory controls and the low interest rates on housing loans.
Among the set of new firms there are those known as ’gazelles’, firms that rapidly increase their employment. This small group of high-growth firms generates a disproportionate share of new jobs.
Finland is now facing problems similar to those with which Japan has already struggled for more than a decade. The population is ageing and the public finances are moving deeper into debt.
While the income uncertainty of Finnish households has not seen any major changes, there are big differences between age-groups and occupations.
Achievement of the employment objective in the Government programme will require GDP growth of 1.3 percentage points faster than estimated in the Bank of Finland’s baseline forecast.
During the forecast years 2016–2018, growth in the advanced economies will continue at a moderate pace.
Precise information on the current state of the economy comes only with a considerable time delay, although many economic decisions require the support of real-time data. Before official statistics are released, the situation is nowcast using short-term forecasting models.
According to the most recent quarterly national accounts, real GDP in the first quarter of 2016 grew by 0.6% quarter on quarter and 1.6% year on year.
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