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According to the forecast, Finland’s economic growth will be slow and well behind that of the euro area. Foreign trade is not recovering as expected, and growth will continue to depend on domestic demand. There will be no significant improvement in the public finances.

Traditional export sectors still the main pillars of foreign trade. Viewed historically, factors that have usually led to a speedy recovery of exports, are now lacking.

The ageing households spend less of any additional income on consumption than the young. Population ageing may weaken the impact of interest rate changes on the economy.

The international economic situation, Finland’s problems with competitiveness and the uncertainty surrounding economic policy could, according to the forecast’s risk assessment, mean a slower pace of investment and export recovery.

Global economic and trade growth in the immediate future will be slower than previously forecast. The Russian economy is contracting, and in China, too, the pace of growth has slowed.

Immigration will bring about a more favourable age structure, as the vast majority of immigrants are young adults. The impact on the public finances will depend on how successful immigrants are in finding work.

According to the Bank of Finland’s assessment of the country’s public finances, the growth in public debt is a cause for concern. Finland’s long-term outlook for growth is weak, and expenditure is increasing apace.

Since the financial crisis, consumer prices in Finland have been rising faster than in the euro area on average until recent months.

The alternative scenario assesses developments in the Finnish economy if exports turn out to be much weaker than in the forecast baseline.