Bank of Finland articles on the economy
Bank of Finland Bulletin 5/2018 - Economic forecast for the Finnish economy
Published 10 Jan 2019
pdf, 3.29 MB
Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2018 - Monetary policy and the global economy
Published 18 Oct 2018
pdf, 5.59 MB
Now is the time to strengthen the public finances and the foundations for productivity growth18 Dec 2018, Bank of Finland Bulletin 5/2018
The euro area’s monetary policy stance is conducive to economic growth and employment in Finland.
Monetary policy normalisation to proceed carefully and with measured pace4 Oct 2018, Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2018
In times of uncertainty, prudence is justified in the normalisation of monetary policy.
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File size and format – pdf, 3.46 MB
According to the forecast, Finland’s economic growth will be slow and well behind that of the euro area. Foreign trade is not recovering as expected, and growth will continue to depend on domestic demand. There will be no significant improvement in the public finances.
Traditional export sectors still the main pillars of foreign trade. Viewed historically, factors that have usually led to a speedy recovery of exports, are now lacking.
The ageing households spend less of any additional income on consumption than the young. Population ageing may weaken the impact of interest rate changes on the economy.
The international economic situation, Finland’s problems with competitiveness and the uncertainty surrounding economic policy could, according to the forecast’s risk assessment, mean a slower pace of investment and export recovery.
Global economic and trade growth in the immediate future will be slower than previously forecast. The Russian economy is contracting, and in China, too, the pace of growth has slowed.
Immigration will bring about a more favourable age structure, as the vast majority of immigrants are young adults. The impact on the public finances will depend on how successful immigrants are in finding work.
According to the Bank of Finland’s assessment of the country’s public finances, the growth in public debt is a cause for concern. Finland’s long-term outlook for growth is weak, and expenditure is increasing apace.
Since the financial crisis, consumer prices in Finland have been rising faster than in the euro area on average until recent months.
The alternative scenario assesses developments in the Finnish economy if exports turn out to be much weaker than in the forecast baseline.
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