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Private consumption and investment will recover slowly. Subdued growth in the euro area economy and the increasing geopolitical tensions will curb the growth in Finnish exports. Inflation will remain moderate in the immediate years ahead.

The United States is planning widespread tariffs on imported goods. If implemented, these would weaken Finland’s economic growth. Even greater harm to growth would be brought by any countermeasures adopted by other countries and they mounting uncertainty over the future direction of international trade policy.

Finland’s public finances will continue to be considerably in deficit in the immediate years ahead. A framework for reducing government debt ratios is provided by the EU’s new fiscal rules. Turning Finland’s debt ratio onto a declining path will require sustained fiscal consolidation measures for some time to come.

The significance of Finland’s service exports has grown rapidly. Service exports comprised about one third of the total value of exports in 2023. Finland’s service export destinations are dominated by a fairly small number of countries, the most important being the United States.