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Post-COVID, the even more indebted public finances will need to be balanced as the economy grows. There will also be a need for structural reforms and a review of the fiscal framework.

A shortage of materials and containers is affecting the economy worldwide, and hence also the Finnish economy. The supply-side disruptions are slowing growth and driving faster inflation.

The Finnish economy will grow 3.5% in 2021 and 2.6% in 2022. Growth is overshadowed by supply-side disruptions, high raw material prices and a deteriorating COVID situation. The rapid growth will be temporary, with the pace slowing to 1.3% by 2024.

The economy will grow approx. 1.2% per annum for the period 2021–2040, and thereafter growth will slow. Human capital threatens to decline from the 2040s. Developments can be influenced by investing in education/training and employment.

The sustainability gap estimate tells us by how much the general government fiscal balance needs to be permanently adjusted so that public debt does not grow out of control in the future. The updated estimate is 3.5% relative to GDP.

In the absence of supply bottlenecks, Finland’s GDP would grow 0.5 of a percentage point faster in 2021. We assume the supply-side disruptions will be smoothed out after 2022, and will not leave long-term scars on the economy.