The economic downturn in 2020 will be smaller in Finland than in the rest of the euro area, but this winter will still be difficult. Private consumption will cause an upturn in growth in 2021, but long-term growth prospects are sluggish.
In the Bank of Finland forecast, the COVID-19 crisis is not expected to cause such a deep recession as experienced in the financial crisis, and recovery will be faster. The virus could, however, leave long-term scars on e.g. employment, the capital stock and productivity.
Debt will not be halted even when the economy begins to grow again. Moreover, the sustainability gap is now larger. A post-crisis change of direction in the public finances is required.
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