Risks on the Swedish housing market also a cause for concern in other Nordic countries
An extensive materialisation of risks on the Swedish housing market could also have notable effects in the other Nordic countries.
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Repricing of securities markets’ risk premia still most significant threat to global financial stability
Low risk premia and high valuations have increased global securities markets’ exposure to price corrections and abrupt shifts in risk premia.
Unemployment rate in Finland close to structural level
According to the structural unemployment indicator based on labour market flows, unemployment in Finland is at slightly over 8%.
Finland’s long-term growth prospects moderate
The economy has recovered from the recession following the financial crisis, but growth is expected to remain below its pre-crisis level, averaging 1.5% per annum over 2026–2040.
International operating environment
The global economy is still growing strongly, but there are already certain signs that the growth rate is levelling off. The deceleration in euro area growth has long been expected in the forecasts.
Monetary policy remains accommodative, net asset purchases about to end
Finland’s public finances have gathered strength; the general government deficit has shrunk and the ratio of public debt to GDP has begun to contract. Yet determined efforts are still required to address the challenges to fiscal sustainability in the long term.
First quarter of 2018 sees a surge in investments
Finland’s GDP grew 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2018 and 3.1% year-on-year. The Finnish economy has now grown for ten consecutive quarters.
Forecast: Finland's economy booming
Global demand, improved competitiveness and favourable financing conditions will support growth. GDP growth forecasts for 2018–2020 stand at 2,9%, 2,2%, and 1,7%. Inflation will remain close to 1% over the years 2018–2019 before gathering pace and reaching 1.5% in 2020.
Clouds over the global economy
An extensive use of restrictions on international trade would substantially weaken global trade and economic growth in Finland.
Are weakly profitable firms suppressing economic growth?
Unprofitable firms occupy economic resources and slow down productivity growth.
Inflation now explained by different factors than during the recession
Following the turn in the economic cycle, growth in labour costs have slowed, and the rise in the output price has been most clearly linked to stronger corporate profitability.
The output gap has closed; Finland's economy at cyclical peak
Output is growing faster than its potential and the Finnish economy is expected to remain at its cyclical peak during 2018–2020.
Bank of Finland staff forecasts: an evaluation
The period 2004 - 2017 under review was particularly challenging for forecasting.