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The energy crisis is threatening to increase the euro area’s energy bill many times over. This will impede growth in the euro area economy in the near term. Besides energy prices, the prices of other products too have climbed sharply.

The COVID crisis caused a steep contraction, but the recovery has begun rapidly. Accommodative economic policy and the vaccination programme are supporting economic recovery. Inflation has recently accelerated, but will slow next year.

The euro area economy contracted 15% in the first half of the year. Rapid and powerful economic policy measures have mitigated the damage caused by the pandemic, but there is still substantial uncertainty and recovery will take time.

There was a shift in the global economic cycle towards slower growth during the first half of 2018. The trade war and Brexit increase the risk of recession.

The economic outlook for the euro area has deteriorated rapidly. The impact of Brexit on Europe as a whole is hard to predict. Another factor overshadowing the global economy is the trade dispute between the USA and China.

The fastest stage of growth in the euro area looks to have passed, but momentum remains strong. Uncertainty is being fuelled by protectionism and Italy’s domestic economic policy.

The favourable outlook for the global economy is overshadowed by the threat of protectionism. In the euro area growth has picked up. Some of this acceleration is on a sustainable basis, but long-term growth is likely to remain slower than pre-crisis growth.

The euro area economy is growing, supported by monetary policy. Confidence in the economy is strong, and investment and employment are both growing. On the other hand, there still remain problems from the financial and debt crises, and the pace of structural reform has slowed.

The euro area economy has now benefited from four years of unbroken growth, and this is expected to continue. The evolution of the global economy will be affected by the economic policy of the new US administration. A potential increase in protectionist actions may impair the expansion of the global economy and trade.

Euro area monetary policy has been relaxed substantially in recent years. The expanded asset purchase programme has progressed according to plan and brought about a broadly based reduction in interest rates in the euro area.

The euro area economy has continued to recover. Despite the positive developments, inflation in 2015 was zero. The low inflation is primarily due to the low price of oil.

Euro area monetary policy has been highly accommodative, and the euro area economy is getting back on track. An abrupt halt in the Chinese economy would be the greatest risk to euro area growth. The articles were first published in Finnish on 24 September 2015.

The decision by the ECB Governing Council to ease monetary policy through an expanded asset purchase programme will boost demand and accelerate inflation via a number of different channels.