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The Finnish economy is recovering from a recession. Growth in the economy will nevertheless be modest in the near term and is being restrained by the low level of investment, in particular.

The long-term forecasting scenarios for economic growth combine the projections for human capital and fixed capital.

Private consumption and investment will recover slowly. Subdued growth in the euro area economy and the increasing geopolitical tensions will curb the growth in Finnish exports. Inflation will remain moderate in the immediate years ahead.

The United States is planning widespread tariffs on imported goods. If implemented, these would weaken Finland’s economic growth. Even greater harm to growth would be brought by any countermeasures adopted by other countries and they mounting uncertainty over the future direction of international trade policy.

Finland is moving on from the recession in its economy. Growth will be slow initially but will gradually pick up. Inflation will no longer be erod-ing the increase in earnings, and the reduction in interest rates will fuel investment and consumption.

Finland’s economy is making a sluggish recovery from recession. According to the Bank of Finland’s September 2024 interim forecast, Finland’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the full year 2024 will again show a contraction.

The Finnish economy is recovering from the recession. Inflation is low and an improvement in the purchasing power of households is supporting a recovery in private consumption.

At the turning points of business cycles, economic recovery has often turned out to be faster than forecast. Growth could pick up if consumers’ confidence in the economy and in their own finances were to strengthen more than expected and exports to grow more quickly than forecast.

The Finnish economy is recovering from the recession. The move out of recession will be slow, and the output of the Finnish economy in 2024 will in fact be below the level of the previous year.

The Finnish economy is still in recession. The recession has reached its lowest point, and a gradual recovery is expected to begin towards the end of 2024.

The Finnish economy is in recession. It is also expected to remain weak in 2024. Inflation in Finland has nevertheless fallen, as anticipated, and the purchasing power of households has strengthened.

In Finland, variable rate mortgages are common, which to some extent is amplifying the impacts of monetary policy on economic growth and inflation. A key factor is the extent to which households have a financial margin to use as a buffer against increases in their loan servicing costs.

Finland’s economy is in recession Finland’s economy is in recession and will not start to pick up until and will not start to pick up until the end of 2024.

The Finnish economy is in mild recession. The rise in prices and interest rates, and weaker export demand, are weighing on the economy, and recovery from the recession will be slow.

Growth in Finland’s economy this year will be close to zero. The declining level of inflation will gradually improve household purchasing power and boost growth in the economy.

A wage-price spiral may occur in which prices and wages rise and ultimately GDP growth slows down.

The Finnish economy will contract by 0.4% in 2023. Inflation is on its way down this year. Economic growth will pick up in 2024, albeit to a modest 0.9%. In 2025, growth in the economy will gather pace, reaching 1.5%.

The Finnish economy slipped into recession last autumn as a result of the energy crisis brought on by Russia’s war in Ukraine. The economy's weak performance will continue this year, as it takes time for the effects of high inflation and the rise in interest rates to be felt in full.

The war in Ukraine and the energy crisis are fanning uncertainty and driving up inflation. Reduced purchasing power will hit private consumption, and the economy will slide into a mild recession. Finland’s GDP will shrink by 0.5% in 2023. Growth will return in 2024, reaching 1.1%.

The alternative scenario in the Bank of Finland’s forecast for the Finnish economy examines risks surrounding the Bank’s December 2022 baseline forecast which, should they materialise, could lead economic growth to be weaker than projected. The scenario estimates the possible impacts on the Finnish economy if Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on and if the availability of energy weakens further and economic uncertainty increases.