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Growth in Finland’s economy this year will be close to zero. The declining level of inflation will gradually improve household purchasing power and boost growth in the economy.

A wage-price spiral may occur in which prices and wages rise and ultimately GDP growth slows down.

The Finnish economy will contract by 0.4% in 2023. Inflation is on its way down this year. Economic growth will pick up in 2024, albeit to a modest 0.9%. In 2025, growth in the economy will gather pace, reaching 1.5%.

The Finnish economy slipped into recession last autumn as a result of the energy crisis brought on by Russia’s war in Ukraine. The economy's weak performance will continue this year, as it takes time for the effects of high inflation and the rise in interest rates to be felt in full.

The war in Ukraine and the energy crisis are fanning uncertainty and driving up inflation. Reduced purchasing power will hit private consumption, and the economy will slide into a mild recession. Finland’s GDP will shrink by 0.5% in 2023. Growth will return in 2024, reaching 1.1%.

The alternative scenario in the Bank of Finland’s forecast for the Finnish economy examines risks surrounding the Bank’s December 2022 baseline forecast which, should they materialise, could lead economic growth to be weaker than projected. The scenario estimates the possible impacts on the Finnish economy if Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on and if the availability of energy weakens further and economic uncertainty increases.

The energy crisis will push the Finnish economy into a mild recession in 2023, but this will be short-lived. Energy prices will gradually fall, and in 2024 the economy will return to growth.

The economy in Finland is weakening after a strong start to the year. The energy crisis and rising inflation have increased the risk of a recession.

Russia’s war in Ukraine is weakening the outlook for the Finnish economy. It is also further driving up inflation. Economic uncertainty and rising prices are undermining consumption and investment.

Russia’s war in Ukraine threatens to push Finland and the entire euro area economy into recession. Disruptions in energy availability and supply chains may turn out to be more severe than anticipated, and market rates could rise more rapidly than expected.

The Finnish economy will grow 1.7% in 2022 and 0.5% in 2023.

In the absence of supply bottlenecks, Finland’s GDP would grow 0.5 of a percentage point faster in 2021. We assume the supply-side disruptions will be smoothed out after 2022, and will not leave long-term scars on the economy.

The Finnish economy will grow 3.5% in 2021 and 2.6% in 2022. Growth is overshadowed by supply-side disruptions, high raw material prices and a deteriorating COVID situation. The rapid growth will be temporary, with the pace slowing to 1.3% by 2024.

The economy will grow approx. 1.2% per annum for the period 2021–2040, and thereafter growth will slow. Human capital threatens to decline from the 2040s. Developments can be influenced by investing in education/training and employment.

The Finnish economy will grow 3.5% in 2021 and 2.6% in 2022.

The Finnish economy strengthened faster than expected in the course of spring and summer 2021.

The Finnish economy will grow 2.9% in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022. Growth will be bolstered by private consumption and the recovering export markets. Long-term growth will, however, be weak. In 2023, GDP growth will slow to 1.3%.

If households spend the savings accumulated during the pandemic quickly, economic growth could be much stronger than estimated in the forecast for the Finnish economy for 2021–2023.

The Finnish economy will grow 2.9% in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022. This fast pace of growth will, however, be only temporary, and in 2023, GDP growth will slow to 1.3%.

The recovery of the Finnish economy from the COVID-19 crisis has been boosted by stronger-than-expected developments in the second half of 2020.