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We are now entering the fourth year of Russia’s full-on military invasion of Ukraine, yet the aggressor Russia, despite its vast military advantage, has failed to subdue Ukraine.

Although Russia’s output growth has slowed in recent months, the official preliminary estimate puts third-quarter on-year GDP growth at 3 %. We should not put too much emphasis on the exact number due the heightened uncertainty of Russian statistics since the invasion of Ukraine.

Incoming American president Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to impose additional tariffs on US imports as a way to reduce the country’s current account deficit and boost domestic production. Initially, the proposal was for a 10% tariff, but later Trump has talked about a 20% tariff. In addition, tariffs on China would be at least 60%. Who eats the costs of such tariffs?

The annual BRICS Summit was held last week in Kazan, the capital city of Russia’s Tatarstan region. The original member countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – held their first get-together under the BRIC banner in 2009. In 2011, South Africa joined the group, and an “S” was added to the group’s name – BRICS. This year’s Kazan summit included a number of new BRICS inductees, including Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Turkey’s president Recep Erdoğan also attended the event.

The above headline aptly summarizes the preliminary 2025–2027 budget framework submitted to the Duma in late September.

Recent data on the state of the euro area economy are downbeat. The economic development of the euro area rests increasingly on services. ECB council decided to keep key interest rates unchanged.

Russia’s future growth potential and living conditions are eroded by government spending and investment focused on war-related production and infrastructure.

This Saturday 24 February 2024 marks the second anniversary of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Along with the human suffering and displacement, war has scarred Ukraine’s economy.

Almost all forecasters inside and outside of Russia foresaw a much deeper contraction, reflecting the fact that the new packages of Western sanctions and Russia’s actions were unprecedented.

Converting data into useful information is one of the strengths of the Bank of Finland and the Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority (FIN-FSA). The Bank of Finland and the FIN-FSA have introduced a joint centre of excellence for advanced data science – the Analytics Center of Excellence, or ACE for short.

A wide coalition of countries have imposed economic sanctions on Russia for its brutal aggression against Ukraine. The sanctions regime has impaired – but not exhausted – Russia’s financial and technological ability to make war.

In 2023 sanctions continue to hurt Russia’s economy. Many businesses have had to adjust to using inferior-quality components or paying higher prices for traditional inputs.

Key aims of the sanctions are to limit its financial and military capabilities to wage war.

Ukraine has suffered most from Russia’s illegal war of aggression launched a year ago. Besides the humanitarian emergency, the war Russia started has been catastrophic for the Ukrainian economy.

With India’s ever-increasing importance in the global economy, Europe’s central banks and other key institutions need to sharpen their focus on India. The International Relations Committee of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) established an informal India expert network in 2021.

Russia’s oil exports have decreased only marginally in volume since it began the war in Ukraine. While the export volume to countries of the European Union has fallen somewhat, Russia has found new markets in India, China and Türkiye.

Russia’s government budget plan that covers all budget levels in 2022−2025 contains optimism. Revenue estimates are based on a relatively benign economic forecast, deficits have been set low, and expenditures are seen to grow very weakly in real terms despite the recession.

Russia’s war in Ukraine is, above all, a massive human tragedy and an assault on Ukraine’s economy and society. But Russia, too, will end up paying a high price for its cruel decision to wage war.

Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine has affected the Russian economy through various channels. There has been a substantial decline in imports due to the heightened uncertainty and the international sanctions prompted by the war.

For previous experiences of stagflation we can turn to the 1970s. There are a number of reasons, however, why 2022 will not be a rerun of 1974.