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War economy boosts life satisfaction for ethnic Russians and residents of military-industrial regions
The analysis of Russian household survey data finds that overall subjective well-being and financial security have improved on average during 2022-2023 but with interesting disparities. Ethnic Russians and those in military-industrial regions have experienced notable gains, whereas retirement aged and highly educated have gained less if at all.
War has degraded Russia’s long-term economic outlook and business environment
Russia’s decision to start a war in Ukraine has eroded its economic growth potential and deteriorated its business environment. These problems will remain long after sanctions are lifted.
Falling oil prices reduce Russia’s budget revenues
Russia’s government finances are very sensitive to changes in global oil prices. Last year, oil & gas earnings accounted for about 30 % of total federal revenues and 16 % of consolidated government revenues.
Economic resilience key in Ukraine’s three-year fight for survival
We are now entering the fourth year of Russia’s full-on military invasion of Ukraine, yet the aggressor Russia, despite its vast military advantage, has failed to subdue Ukraine.
Russia’s GDP growth reflects military spending, not economic strength
Although Russia’s output growth has slowed in recent months, the official preliminary estimate puts third-quarter on-year GDP growth at 3 %. We should not put too much emphasis on the exact number due the heightened uncertainty of Russian statistics since the invasion of Ukraine.
Who’ll pay Trump’s tariffs?
Incoming American president Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to impose additional tariffs on US imports as a way to reduce the country’s current account deficit and boost domestic production. Initially, the proposal was for a 10% tariff, but later Trump has talked about a 20% tariff. In addition, tariffs on China would be at least 60%. Who eats the costs of such tariffs?
BRICS membership – What’s not to like?
The annual BRICS Summit was held last week in Kazan, the capital city of Russia’s Tatarstan region. The original member countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – held their first get-together under the BRIC banner in 2009. In 2011, South Africa joined the group, and an “S” was added to the group’s name – BRICS. This year’s Kazan summit included a number of new BRICS inductees, including Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Turkey’s president Recep Erdoğan also attended the event.
Russia further increases military expenditure at the expense of other financing needs
The above headline aptly summarizes the preliminary 2025–2027 budget framework submitted to the Duma in late September.
Rates intact for now – monetary policy still supports disinflation
Recent data on the state of the euro area economy are downbeat. The economic development of the euro area rests increasingly on services. ECB council decided to keep key interest rates unchanged.
Military dominance increases imbalances in the Russian economy
Russia’s future growth potential and living conditions are eroded by government spending and investment focused on war-related production and infrastructure.
Ukraine’s economy grows amidst the rising toll of war
This Saturday 24 February 2024 marks the second anniversary of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Along with the human suffering and displacement, war has scarred Ukraine’s economy.
Why did initial estimates get Russian economic performance so wrong?
Almost all forecasters inside and outside of Russia foresaw a much deeper contraction, reflecting the fact that the new packages of Western sanctions and Russia’s actions were unprecedented.
Bank of Finland and FIN-FSA take a leap forward in data science
Converting data into useful information is one of the strengths of the Bank of Finland and the Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority (FIN-FSA). The Bank of Finland and the FIN-FSA have introduced a joint centre of excellence for advanced data science – the Analytics Center of Excellence, or ACE for short.
G7 countries prepare to discuss Russia trade sanctions
A wide coalition of countries have imposed economic sanctions on Russia for its brutal aggression against Ukraine. The sanctions regime has impaired – but not exhausted – Russia’s financial and technological ability to make war.
A year of war has changed the Russian economy
In 2023 sanctions continue to hurt Russia’s economy. Many businesses have had to adjust to using inferior-quality components or paying higher prices for traditional inputs.
Russia’s economy after a year of war and sanctions
Key aims of the sanctions are to limit its financial and military capabilities to wage war.
Ukraine has suffered most in many ways
Ukraine has suffered most from Russia’s illegal war of aggression launched a year ago. Besides the humanitarian emergency, the war Russia started has been catastrophic for the Ukrainian economy.
Expert network’s first mission finds strong sense of self-determination among Indian economists
With India’s ever-increasing importance in the global economy, Europe’s central banks and other key institutions need to sharpen their focus on India. The International Relations Committee of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) established an informal India expert network in 2021.
Impending EU sanctions could badly hit Russia’s oil revenues
Russia’s oil exports have decreased only marginally in volume since it began the war in Ukraine. While the export volume to countries of the European Union has fallen somewhat, Russia has found new markets in India, China and Türkiye.