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War economy boosts life satisfaction for ethnic Russians and residents of military-industrial regions

The analysis of Russian household survey data finds that overall subjective well-being and financial security have improved on average during 2022-2023 but with interesting disparities. Ethnic Russians and those in military-industrial regions have experienced notable gains, whereas retirement aged and highly educated have gained less if at all.

Import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty will dampen economic growth

The United States is planning widespread tariffs on imported goods. If implemented, these would weaken Finland’s economic growth. Even greater harm to growth would be brought by any countermeasures adopted by other countries and they mounting uncertainty over the future direction of international trade policy.

Sustained efforts needed to turn Finland’s public debt ratio around

Finland’s public finances will continue to be considerably in deficit in the immediate years ahead. A framework for reducing government debt ratios is provided by the EU’s new fiscal rules. Turning Finland’s debt ratio onto a declining path will require sustained fiscal consolidation measures for some time to come.

Climate change and biodiversity loss as systemic threats to financial stability in Finland

Climate change and biodiversity loss pose threats to financial stability. The financial sector in Finland seems to have less exposure to emissions-intensive businesses than in many other euro area countries, but the risks surrounding the transition to carbon neutrality can hardly be avoided in Finland either.

Impact of geopolitical surprises on euro area inflation varies case by case

Geopolitics can bring about volatility in inflation and in the rest of the economy. However, geopolitical surprises and their consequences are not particularly well understood yet in economics. The impact of such surprises on euro area inflation nevertheless varies case by case.

Will the euro area’s robust employment growth continue?

Employment has grown strongly in the euro area since 2020. This has been attributable to both demand and supply factors. In the near future, population ageing will reduce the supply of labour in the euro area. The impact of population ageing will nevertheless be softened by a rise in the labour force participation rate, work-based immigration and a reduction in structural unemployment.

Impact of ECB’s policy rate changes on corporate loan rates varies strongly across countries

A considerable proportion of the corporate loan stock in the euro area consists of loans with a fixed – rather than a variable – rate of interest. However, this proportion differs by industry and even more so by country. In Germany and France, the majority of corporate loans are tied to a fixed rate. In Finland, the proportion of fixed rate loans is small.

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