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Forecast tables for 2024–2027 (June 2025)

The Finnish economy will grow this year by 0.5%, and by 1.5% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. Inflation will stay below 2% in the immediate years ahead.

1. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND AT REFERENCE YEAR 2015 PRICES
% change on previous year 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ
GDP at market prices -0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6
Imports of goods and services -2.4 0.8 2.7 2.6
Exports of goods and services 0.1 1.9 1.7 2.8
Private consumption -0.1 0.3 1.7 1.8
Public consumption 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 -0.0
Private fixed investment -10.2 -2.5 4.2 3.8
Public fixed investment 7.4 11.5 5.7 0.2
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ
GDP, % change -0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6
Net exports 1.1 0.5 -0.4 0.1
Domestic demand excl. inventory change -1.5 0.2 1.8 1.6
of which Consumption 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.9
Investment -1.7 0.1 1.0 0.6
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights.
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRICE DEFLATORS
Index 2015=100, and % change on previous year 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ
GDP at market prices 121.2 123.5 125.7 128.6
1.4 2.0 1.7 2.3
Imports of goods and services 124.8 126.1 128.1 130.5
-0.5 1.0 1.7 1.9
Exports of goods and services 122.0 122.9 124.7 127.4
-2.2 0.7 1.4 2.1
Private consumption 120.4 122.5 124.4 126.8
2.1 1.7 1.5 1.9
Public consumption 121.5 124.9 127.8 132.0
1.7 2.8 2.3 3.2
Private fixed investment 127.3 127.6 129.8 132.4
0.2 0.2 1.7 2.0
Public fixed investment 124.0 124.8 127.1 129.9
1.1 0.6 1.8 2.2
Terms of trade (goods and services) 97.7 97.5 97.3 97.6
-1.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.2
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
EUR million and % change on previous year 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ
GDP at market prices 276,172 283,125 292,138 303,874
1.2 2.5 3.2 4.0
Imports of goods and services 113,342 115,316 120,381 125,792
-2.9 1.7 4.4 4.5
Total supply 389,514 398,441 412,519 429,666
0.0 2.3 3.5 4.2
Exports of goods and services 115,103 118,149 121,890 128,010
-2.1 2.6 3.2 5.0
Consumption 214,966 219,763 226,170 234,304
2.2 2.2 2.9 3.6
Private 143,094 146,066 150,855 156,572
2.0 2.1 3.3 3.8
Public 71,872 73,697 75,315 77,732
2.5 2.5 2.2 3.2
Fixed investment 59,417 59,848 63,689 66,902
-6.8 0.7 6.4 5.0
Private 47,278 46,224 49,023 51,877
-10.0 -2.2 6.1 5.8
Public 12,139 13,624 14,666 15,025
8.5 12.2 7.7 2.4
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 28 680 770 450
% of previous year's total demand 0.6 0.2 0.0 -0.1
Total demand 389,514 398,441 412,519 429,666
0.0 2.3 3.5 4.2
Total domestic demand 274,411 280,291 290,630 301,656
0.9 2.1 3.7 3.8
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
% in proportion to GDP at current prices 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 41.0 40.7 41.2 41.4
Exports of goods and services 41.7 41.7 41.7 42.1
Consumption 77.8 77.6 77.4 77.1
Private 51.8 51.6 51.6 51.5
Public 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.6
Fixed investment 21.5 21.1 21.8 22.0
Private 17.1 16.3 16.8 17.1
Public 4.4 4.8 5.0 4.9
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1
Total demand 141.0 140.7 141.2 141.4
Total domestic demand 99.4 99.0 99.5 99.3
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
6. PRICES
Index 2015=100, and % change on previous year 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2015=100 119.8 121.8 123.5 125.8
1.0 1.7 1.4 1.8
Harmonised index of consumer prices excl. energy and food, 2015=100 115.0 117.6 119.5 121.7
2.2 2.3 1.6 1.8
Consumer price index, 2015=100 122.3 122.8 124.0 126.3
1.6 0.4 1.0 1.8
Private consumption deflator 120.4 122.5 124.4 126.8
2.1 1.7 1.5 1.9
Private investment deflator 127.3 127.6 129.8 132.4
0.2 0.2 1.7 2.0
Exports of goods and services deflator 122.0 122.9 124.7 127.4
-2.2 0.7 1.4 2.1
Imports of goods and services deflator 124.8 126.1 128.1 130.5
-0.5 1.0 1.7 1.9
Value-added deflators
Value added, gross at basic prices 121.3 123.9 126.1 128.7
1.3 2.1 1.8 2.1
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
% change on previous year 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ
Whole economy
Index of wage and salary earnings 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.3
Compensation per employee 0.5 3.1 2.7 3.0
Unit labour costs -0.5 2.1 1.9 2.2
Productivity per employed person 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
8. LABOUR MARKET
1,000 persons and % change on previous year 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)
Employed persons 2,603 2,592 2,609 2,630
-1.1 -0.4 0.6 0.8
Unemployed persons 240 262 257 244
16.6 9.4 -1.8 -5.2
Labour force 2,843 2,854 2,866 2,874
0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,474 3,495 3,513 3,532
0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5
Labour force participation rate, % 68.5 68.4 68.4 68.4
Unemployment rate, % 8.4 9.2 9.0 8.5
Employment rate (20–64-year-olds), % 76.7 76.1 76.2 76.4
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURE, BALANCE AND DEBT
2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ
% relative to GDP
General government revenue 53.3 53.9 53.6 53.0
General government expenditure 57.7 57.8 57.4 56.6
General government primary expenditure 56.1 56.2 55.6 54.8
General government interest expenditure 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8
General government net lending -4.4 -3.9 -3.8 -3.6
Central government -3.6 -4.1 -4.2 -4.1
Local government -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6
Social security funds 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.1
General government primary balance -2.8 -2.3 -2.1 -1.8
General government structural balance¹ -2.9 -2.3 -2.5 -2.8
General government debt (EDP) 82.1 84.9 86.7 87.9
Central government debt 61.3 64.2 66.3 67.8
Tax ratio 42.1 42.7 42.3 41.8
Current prices, EUR billion
General government net lending -12.2 -11.1 -11.1 -10.9
Central government -10.0 -11.5 -12.4 -12.5
Local government -2.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8
Social security funds 0.7 2.1 3.1 3.4
General government debt (EDP) 226.7 240.3 253.4 267.2
1Based on the cyclical adjustment method used by the European System of Central Banks.
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
EUR billion 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ
Exports of goods and services (SNA)1 115.1 118.1 121.9 128.0
Imports of goods and services (SNA)1 113.3 115.3 120.4 125.8
Goods and services account (SNA)1 1.8 2.8 1.5 2.2
% of GDP 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.7
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 1.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6
Current transfers, net -1.4 -1.2 -1.4 -2.1
Current account, net 0.7 -1.1 -0.4 -0.4
Net lending, % of GDP
Private sector 4.8 3.5 3.6 3.5
Public sector -4.5 -3.9 -3.8 -3.6
Current account, % of GDP 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1
f=forecast.
1SNA = System of National Accounts
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
11. INTEREST RATES
% 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ
3-month Euribor1 3.6 2.1 1.9 2.2
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5
1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
f=forecast.
Sources: European Central Bank and Bank of Finland.
12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
Eurosystem staff projections 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ
GDP, % change on previous year
World (excl. euro area) 3.6 3.1 2.9 3.2
USA 2.8 1.4 1.4 2.1
Euro area 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3
Japan 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.8
Imports, % change on previous year
World (excl. euro area) 4.2 3.1 1.7 3.1
USA 5.3 3.5 -2.9 2.5
Euro area 0.2 1.9 2.0 2.7
Japan 1.3 3.0 2.1 2.7
Index, 2015=100, and % change on previous year
Import volume in Finnish export markets 121.5 124.7 126.8 130.6
2.2 2.6 1.7 2.9
Export prices of Finland's trading partners, national currencies 128.9 131.0 133.8 136.9
1.6 1.6 2.2 2.3
Export prices of Finland's trading partners, in EUR 125.1 126.2 128.4 131.3
0.3 0.9 1.8 2.3
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in USD 152.1 162.5 161.8 162.8
9.2 6.8 -0.4 0.6
Oil price, USD/barrel1 82.0 66.7 62.8 64.2
-2.1 -18.6 -5.8 2.2
Finland's nominal effective exchange rate2 103.0 103.8 104.2 104.2
-1.3 -0.7 -0.4 0.0
US dollar value of one euro3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
0.1 2.3 1.7 0.0
1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2 Broad nominal effective exchange rate, January – March 2015 = 100. The index rises as the currency depreciates. Assuming no changes in the exchange rate.
3 Assuming no changes in the exchange rate.
f=forecast.
Sources: European Central Bank and Bank of Finland.
13. Current and December 2024 forecast
2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ
GDP, % change -0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6
December 2024 -0.5 0.8 1.8 1.3
Inflation (HICP), % 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.8
December 2024 1.0 1.9 1.5 1.7
Employment rate (20–64-year-olds), % 76.7 76.1 76.2 76.4
December 2024 76.7 76.3 76.5 76.6
Unemployment rate, % 8.4 9.2 9.0 8.5
December 2024 8.3 8.7 8.2 7.7
Current account, % of GDP 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1
December 2024 0.5 0.1 -0.4 -0.5
General government net lending, % of GDP -4.4 -3.9 -3.8 -3.6
December 2024 -4.0 -3.7 -3.3 -2.9
General government debt (EDP), % of GDP 82.1 84.9 86.7 87.9
December 2024 81.7 84.6 85.9 87.3
f=forecast.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
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