Article content
Forecast tables for 2024–2027 (June 2025)
The Finnish economy will grow this year by 0.5%, and by 1.5% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. Inflation will stay below 2% in the immediate years ahead.
| % change on previous year | 2024 | 2025ᶠ | 2026ᶠ | 2027ᶠ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP at market prices | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Imports of goods and services | -2.4 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Exports of goods and services | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| Private consumption | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Public consumption | 0.7 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Private fixed investment | -10.2 | -2.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Public fixed investment | 7.4 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 0.2 |
| f=forecast. | ||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | ||||
| 2024 | 2025ᶠ | 2026ᶠ | 2027ᶠ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP, % change | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Net exports | 1.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 0.1 |
| Domestic demand excl. inventory change | -1.5 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| of which Consumption | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Investment | -1.7 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Inventory change + statistical discrepancy | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| 1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights. | ||||
| f=forecast. | ||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | ||||
| Index 2015=100, and % change on previous year | 2024 | 2025ᶠ | 2026ᶠ | 2027ᶠ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP at market prices | 121.2 | 123.5 | 125.7 | 128.6 |
| 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | |
| Imports of goods and services | 124.8 | 126.1 | 128.1 | 130.5 |
| -0.5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.9 | |
| Exports of goods and services | 122.0 | 122.9 | 124.7 | 127.4 |
| -2.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.1 | |
| Private consumption | 120.4 | 122.5 | 124.4 | 126.8 |
| 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | |
| Public consumption | 121.5 | 124.9 | 127.8 | 132.0 |
| 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 3.2 | |
| Private fixed investment | 127.3 | 127.6 | 129.8 | 132.4 |
| 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2.0 | |
| Public fixed investment | 124.0 | 124.8 | 127.1 | 129.9 |
| 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.2 | |
| Terms of trade (goods and services) | 97.7 | 97.5 | 97.3 | 97.6 |
| -1.7 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.2 | |
| f=forecast. | ||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | ||||
| EUR million and % change on previous year | 2024 | 2025ᶠ | 2026ᶠ | 2027ᶠ | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP at market prices | 276,172 | 283,125 | 292,138 | 303,874 | |||
| 1.2 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 4.0 | ||||
| Imports of goods and services | 113,342 | 115,316 | 120,381 | 125,792 | |||
| -2.9 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 4.5 | ||||
| Total supply | 389,514 | 398,441 | 412,519 | 429,666 | |||
| 0.0 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | ||||
| Exports of goods and services | 115,103 | 118,149 | 121,890 | 128,010 | |||
| -2.1 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 5.0 | ||||
| Consumption | 214,966 | 219,763 | 226,170 | 234,304 | |||
| 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | ||||
| Private | 143,094 | 146,066 | 150,855 | 156,572 | |||
| 2.0 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 3.8 | ||||
| Public | 71,872 | 73,697 | 75,315 | 77,732 | |||
| 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 3.2 | ||||
| Fixed investment | 59,417 | 59,848 | 63,689 | 66,902 | |||
| -6.8 | 0.7 | 6.4 | 5.0 | ||||
| Private | 47,278 | 46,224 | 49,023 | 51,877 | |||
| -10.0 | -2.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | ||||
| Public | 12,139 | 13,624 | 14,666 | 15,025 | |||
| 8.5 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 2.4 | ||||
| Inventory change + statistical discrepancy | 28 | 680 | 770 | 450 | |||
| % of previous year's total demand | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.1 | |||
| Total demand | 389,514 | 398,441 | 412,519 | 429,666 | |||
| 0.0 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | ||||
| Total domestic demand | 274,411 | 280,291 | 290,630 | 301,656 | |||
| 0.9 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.8 | ||||
| f=forecast. | |||||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||||
| % in proportion to GDP at current prices | 2024 | 2025ᶠ | 2026ᶠ | 2027ᶠ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP at market prices | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |
| Imports of goods and services | 41.0 | 40.7 | 41.2 | 41.4 | |
| Exports of goods and services | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 42.1 | |
| Consumption | 77.8 | 77.6 | 77.4 | 77.1 | |
| Private | 51.8 | 51.6 | 51.6 | 51.5 | |
| Public | 26.0 | 26.0 | 25.8 | 25.6 | |
| Fixed investment | 21.5 | 21.1 | 21.8 | 22.0 | |
| Private | 17.1 | 16.3 | 16.8 | 17.1 | |
| Public | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | |
| Inventory change + statistical discrepancy | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| Total demand | 141.0 | 140.7 | 141.2 | 141.4 | |
| Total domestic demand | 99.4 | 99.0 | 99.5 | 99.3 | |
| f=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | |||||
| Index 2015=100, and % change on previous year | 2024 | 2025ᶠ | 2026ᶠ | 2027ᶠ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2015=100 | 119.8 | 121.8 | 123.5 | 125.8 |
| 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.8 | |
| Harmonised index of consumer prices excl. energy and food, 2015=100 | 115.0 | 117.6 | 119.5 | 121.7 |
| 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | |
| Consumer price index, 2015=100 | 122.3 | 122.8 | 124.0 | 126.3 |
| 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | |
| Private consumption deflator | 120.4 | 122.5 | 124.4 | 126.8 |
| 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | |
| Private investment deflator | 127.3 | 127.6 | 129.8 | 132.4 |
| 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2.0 | |
| Exports of goods and services deflator | 122.0 | 122.9 | 124.7 | 127.4 |
| -2.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.1 | |
| Imports of goods and services deflator | 124.8 | 126.1 | 128.1 | 130.5 |
| -0.5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.9 | |
| Value-added deflators | ||||
| Value added, gross at basic prices | 121.3 | 123.9 | 126.1 | 128.7 |
| 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.1 | |
| f=forecast. | ||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | ||||
| % change on previous year | 2024 | 2025ᶠ | 2026ᶠ | 2027ᶠ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whole economy | ||||
| Index of wage and salary earnings | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Compensation per employee | 0.5 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Unit labour costs | -0.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Productivity per employed person | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| f=forecast. | ||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | ||||
| 1,000 persons and % change on previous year | 2024 | 2025ᶠ | 2026ᶠ | 2027ᶠ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds) | ||||
| Employed persons | 2,603 | 2,592 | 2,609 | 2,630 |
| -1.1 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | |
| Unemployed persons | 240 | 262 | 257 | 244 |
| 16.6 | 9.4 | -1.8 | -5.2 | |
| Labour force | 2,843 | 2,854 | 2,866 | 2,874 |
| 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | |
| Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) | 3,474 | 3,495 | 3,513 | 3,532 |
| 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| Labour force participation rate, % | 68.5 | 68.4 | 68.4 | 68.4 |
| Unemployment rate, % | 8.4 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.5 |
| Employment rate (20–64-year-olds), % | 76.7 | 76.1 | 76.2 | 76.4 |
| f=forecast. | ||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | ||||
| 2024 | 2025ᶠ | 2026ᶠ | 2027ᶠ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % relative to GDP | ||||
| General government revenue | 53.3 | 53.9 | 53.6 | 53.0 |
| General government expenditure | 57.7 | 57.8 | 57.4 | 56.6 |
| General government primary expenditure | 56.1 | 56.2 | 55.6 | 54.8 |
| General government interest expenditure | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| General government net lending | -4.4 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.6 |
| Central government | -3.6 | -4.1 | -4.2 | -4.1 |
| Local government | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| Social security funds | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| General government primary balance | -2.8 | -2.3 | -2.1 | -1.8 |
| General government structural balance¹ | -2.9 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -2.8 |
| General government debt (EDP) | 82.1 | 84.9 | 86.7 | 87.9 |
| Central government debt | 61.3 | 64.2 | 66.3 | 67.8 |
| Tax ratio | 42.1 | 42.7 | 42.3 | 41.8 |
| Current prices, EUR billion | ||||
| General government net lending | -12.2 | -11.1 | -11.1 | -10.9 |
| Central government | -10.0 | -11.5 | -12.4 | -12.5 |
| Local government | -2.8 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.8 |
| Social security funds | 0.7 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| General government debt (EDP) | 226.7 | 240.3 | 253.4 | 267.2 |
| 1Based on the cyclical adjustment method used by the European System of Central Banks. | ||||
| f=forecast. | ||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | ||||
| EUR billion | 2024 | 2025ᶠ | 2026ᶠ | 2027ᶠ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exports of goods and services (SNA)1 | 115.1 | 118.1 | 121.9 | 128.0 |
| Imports of goods and services (SNA)1 | 113.3 | 115.3 | 120.4 | 125.8 |
| Goods and services account (SNA)1 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| % of GDP | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) | 1.1 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| Current transfers, net | -1.4 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -2.1 |
| Current account, net | 0.7 | -1.1 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| Net lending, % of GDP | ||||
| Private sector | 4.8 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| Public sector | -4.5 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.6 |
| Current account, % of GDP | 0.3 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| f=forecast. | ||||
| 1SNA = System of National Accounts | ||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | ||||
| % | 2024 | 2025ᶠ | 2026ᶠ | 2027ᶠ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-month Euribor1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| 1Technical assumption derived from market expectations. | ||||
| f=forecast. | ||||
| Sources: European Central Bank and Bank of Finland. | ||||
| Eurosystem staff projections | 2024 | 2025ᶠ | 2026ᶠ | 2027ᶠ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP, % change on previous year | |||||
| World (excl. euro area) | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.2 | |
| USA | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | |
| Euro area | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | |
| Japan | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | |
| Imports, % change on previous year | |||||
| World (excl. euro area) | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 3.1 | |
| USA | 5.3 | 3.5 | -2.9 | 2.5 | |
| Euro area | 0.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.7 | |
| Japan | 1.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | |
| Index, 2015=100, and % change on previous year | |||||
| Import volume in Finnish export markets | 121.5 | 124.7 | 126.8 | 130.6 | |
| 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.9 | ||
| Export prices of Finland's trading partners, national currencies | 128.9 | 131.0 | 133.8 | 136.9 | |
| 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.3 | ||
| Export prices of Finland's trading partners, in EUR | 125.1 | 126.2 | 128.4 | 131.3 | |
| 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.3 | ||
| Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in USD | 152.1 | 162.5 | 161.8 | 162.8 | |
| 9.2 | 6.8 | -0.4 | 0.6 | ||
| Oil price, USD/barrel1 | 82.0 | 66.7 | 62.8 | 64.2 | |
| -2.1 | -18.6 | -5.8 | 2.2 | ||
| Finland's nominal effective exchange rate2 | 103.0 | 103.8 | 104.2 | 104.2 | |
| -1.3 | -0.7 | -0.4 | 0.0 | ||
| US dollar value of one euro3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | |
| 0.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | ||
| 1Technical assumption derived from market expectations. | |||||
| 2 Broad nominal effective exchange rate, January – March 2015 = 100. The index rises as the currency depreciates. Assuming no changes in the exchange rate. | |||||
| 3 Assuming no changes in the exchange rate. | |||||
| f=forecast. | |||||
| Sources: European Central Bank and Bank of Finland. | |||||
| 2024 | 2025ᶠ | 2026ᶠ | 2027ᶠ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP, % change | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| December 2024 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Inflation (HICP), % | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| December 2024 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Employment rate (20–64-year-olds), % | 76.7 | 76.1 | 76.2 | 76.4 |
| December 2024 | 76.7 | 76.3 | 76.5 | 76.6 |
| Unemployment rate, % | 8.4 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.5 |
| December 2024 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 7.7 |
| Current account, % of GDP | 0.3 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| December 2024 | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| General government net lending, % of GDP | -4.4 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.6 |
| December 2024 | -4.0 | -3.7 | -3.3 | -2.9 |
| General government debt (EDP), % of GDP | 82.1 | 84.9 | 86.7 | 87.9 |
| December 2024 | 81.7 | 84.6 | 85.9 | 87.3 |
| f=forecast. | ||||
| Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland. | ||||