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Forecast tables

Forecast for 2018–2020

See forecast tables for the Finnish economy in 2018–2020 (June 2018)

June 2018

1. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT REFERENCE YEAR 2010 PRICES
% change on previous year
  2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f
GDP at market prices 2.1 2.6 2.9 2.2 1.7
Imports of goods and services 5.7 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.6
Exports of goods and services 3.5 7.8 5.1 3.9 3.1
Private consumption 1.8 1.6 2.3 1.9 1.6
Public consumption 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.7
Private fixed investment 7.8 8.4 4.2 3.3 2.5
Public fixed investment 5.8 –2.9 2.2 0.5 0.4
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
  2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f
GDP, % change 2.1 2.6 2.9 2.2 1.7
Net exports –0.8 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.2
Domestic demand excl. inventory change 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.7 1.5
of which Consumption 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.0
         Investment 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.5
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.0 –1.4 –0.1 0.0 0.0
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights. 
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRICE DEFLATORS     
Index 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year    
  2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f
GDP at market prices 113.1 114.1 115.4 117.3 119.7
  0.8 0.9 1.1 1.6 2.0
Imports of goods and services 97.2 100.8 103.3 105.4 107.3
  –3.2 3.8 2.5 2.0 1.9
Exports of goods and services 101.2 104.2 107.1 108.9 110.8
  –1.8 2.9 2.8 1.7 1.7
Private consumption 111.5 112.5 113.5 115.0 117.0
  0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.7
Public consumption 112.3 110.5 112.5 114.6 117.5
  –0.6 –1.6 1.8 1.9 2.6
Private fixed investment 111.1 113.3 115.8 118.7 121.7
  1.5 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.5
Public fixed investment 111.4 114.0 116.2 118.6 121.2
  1.1 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.2
Terms of trade (goods and services) 104.2 103.3 103.6 103.4 103.2
  1.4 –0.8 0.3 –0.2 –0.1
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
EUR million and % change on previous year      
  2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f
GDP at market prices 215,773 223,522 232,593 241,575 250,720
  2.9 3.6 4.1 3.9 3.8
Imports of goods and services 79,350 85,226 90,032 94,380 98,680
  2.4 7.4 5.6 4.8 4.6
Total supply 295,123 308,748 322,625 335,955 349,400
  2.8 4.6 4.5 4.1 4.0
Exports of goods and services 77,749 86,252 93,143 98,439 103,262
  1.6 10.9 8.0 5.7 4.9
Consumption 170,772 173,539 178,689 183,858 189,858
  2.2 1.6 3.0 2.9 3.3
   Private 119,067 122,017 125,959 130,062 134,300
  2.7 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.3
   Public 51,705 51,522 52,730 53,796 55,559
  1.1 –0.4 2.3 2.0 3.3
Fixed investment 46,549 50,503 53,592 56,458 59,080
  9.0 8.5 6.1 5.3 4.6
   Private 37,828 41,833 44,563 47,196 49,580
  9.4 10.6 6.5 5.9 5.1
   Public 8,721 8,670 9,029 9,263 9,500
  7.0 –0.6 4.1 2.6 2.6
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 53 –1,546 –2,800 –2,800 –2,800
% of previous year's total demand –0.3 –0.5 –0.4 0.0 0.0
Total demand 295,123 308,748 322,625 335,955 349,400
  2.8 4.6 4.5 4.1 4.0
Total domestic demand 217,374 222,496 229,481 237,517 246,138
  3.2 2.4 3.1 3.5 3.6
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND     
% of GDP at current prices     
  2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 36.8 38.1 38.7 39.1 39.4
Exports of goods and services 36.0 38.6 40.0 40.7 41.2
Consumption 79.1 77.6 76.8 76.1 75.7
   Private 55.2 54.6 54.2 53.8 53.6
   Public 24.0 23.1 22.7 22.3 22.2
Fixed investment 21.6 22.6 23.0 23.4 23.6
   Private 17.5 18.7 19.2 19.5 19.8
   Public 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.0 –0.7 –1.2 –1.2 –1.1
Total demand 136.8 138.1 138.7 139.1 139.4
Total domestic demand 100.7 99.5 98.7 98.3 98.2
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

6. PRICES
Index 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year
  2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2005 = 100 100.4 101.2 102.2 103.2 104.8
  0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.5
Consumer price index, 2005 = 100 119.7 120.6 121.7 123.0 125.0
  0.4 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.7
Private consumption deflator 111.5 112.5 113.5 115.0 117.0
  0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.7
Private investment deflator 111.1 113.3 115.8 118.7 121.7
  1.5 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.5
Exports of goods and services deflator 101.2 104.2 107.1 108.9 110.8
  –1.8 2.9 2.8 1.7 1.7
Imports of goods and services deflator 97.2 100.8 103.3 105.4 107.3
  –3.2 3.8 2.5 2.0 1.9
Value-added deflators 113.0 113.9 115.7 117.7 119.9
Value-added, gross at basic prices 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.8
  112.6 114.2 115.9 117.9 119.9
   Private sector 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7
  114.2 112.5 114.8 116.9 119.9
   Public sector –1.1 –1.5 2.0 1.9 2.6
           
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY     
% change on previous year     
  2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f
Whole economy          
   Index of wage and salary earnings 0.9 0.2 2.2 2.2 2.6
   Compensation per employee 1.2 –1.2 1.0 2.0 3.2
   Unit labour costs –0.6 –2.7 –0.6 0.6 1.9
   Labour productivity per employed person 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

8. LABOUR MARKET
1,000 persons and % change on previous year 
  2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)          
Employed persons 2,447 2,474 2,508 2,527 2,537
  0.4 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.4
Unemployed persons 236 234 218 212 207
  –6.4 –0.9 –6.9 –2.6 –2.2
Labour force 2,683 2,708 2,725 2,739 2,744
  –0.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,463 3,451 3,440 3,433 3,426
  –0.4 –0.3 –0.3 –0.2 –0.2
Labour force participation rate, % 65.3 65.8 66.2 66.4 66.6
Unemployment rate, % 8.8 8.6 8.0 7.7 7.5
Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 68.7 69.6 70.9 71.5 71.9
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURE, BALANCE AND DEBT
  2016 2017  2018f  2019f 2020f
% of GDP          
General government revenue 54.2 53.2 52.1 51.3 51.3
General government expenditure 56.0 53.7 52.9 52.0 51.6
General government primary expenditure 54.9 52.7 52.0 51.2 50.9
General government interest expenditure 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8
General government net lending –1.8 –0.6 –0.8 –0.6 –0.3
Central government –2.7 –1.7 –1.7 –1.1 –0.6
Local government –0.4 –0.1 –0.3 –0.4 –0.4
Social security funds 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7
General government primary balance –0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.5
General government debt (EDP) 63.0 61.4 60.2 59.4 58.2
Central government debt 47.4 47.3 46.7 46.1 45.0
Tax ratio 44.1 43.4 42.5 41.9 42.0
Current prices, EUR billion          
General government net lending –3.9 –1.3 –1.9 –1.5 –0.8
Central government –5.8 –3.8 –3.9 –2.7 –1.4
Local government –1.0 –0.2 –0.6 –0.9 –1.1
Social security funds 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.7
General government debt (EDP) 136.0 137.3 139.9 143.4 145.8
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
EUR billion
  2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 77.7 86.3 93.1 98.4 103.3
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 79.4 85.2 90.0 94.4 98.7
Goods and services account (SNA) –1.6 1.0 3.1 4.1 4.6
% of GDP –0.7 0.5 1.3 1.7 1.8
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 3.4 2.7 1.6 0.5 0.5
Current transfers, net –2.5 –2.1 –2.6 –2.7 –2.9
Current account, net –0.7 16.0 2.1 1.8 2.2
Net lending, % of GDP     
   Private sector 1.4 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.3
   Public sector –1.8 –0.4 –0.8 –0.7 –0.4
Current account, % of GDP –0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.9
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

11. INTEREST RATES
%
  2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f
3-month Euribor1 –0.3 –0.3 –0.3 –0.2 0.2
Average interest rate on new loan drawdowns2 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 
Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 1.5 1.5 1.4  1.5  1.8 
Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 0.2 0.2 0.1  0.2  0.4 
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2
1 Tehnical assumption derived from market expectations.     
2 Finnish credit institutions' loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts, credit card credits and repurchase agreements). 
3 Finnish credit institutions' deposits from households and non-financial corporations.     
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
The Eurosystem staff projections     
  2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f
GDP, % change on previous year
   World 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.5
   USA 1.5 2.3 2.8 2.5 2.1
   Euro area 1.8 2.5 2.1  1.9  1.7 
   Japan 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.1
Imports, % change on previous year     
   World 2.2 5.1 5.1 4.6 4.0
   USA 1.3 4.0 5.7 6.3 5.1
   Euro area 4.7 4.6 4.1  4.7  4.0 
   Japan –1.6 3.4 4.0 3.8 2.0
Index, 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year     
Import volume in Finnish export markets 121.2 128.5 134.8 140.6 145.9
  2.6 6.0 4.9 4.3 3.7
Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, national currencies 106.0 109.5 113.4 116.3 118.8
  –2.1 3.3 3.6 2.5 2.2
Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, in euro 101.7 104.7 105.0 107.7 110.0
  –4.6 3.0 0.3 2.5 2.2
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 97.3 118.2 132.7 133.1 138.4
  –2.8 21.5 12.2 0.3 4.0
Oil price, USD per barrel1 44.0 54.4 74.5 73.5 68.7
  –15.9 23.5 36.9 –1.3 –6.6
Finland's nominal competitiveness indicator1, 2 103.3 103.6 107.0 107.0 107.0
  2.6 0.3 3.3 0.0 0.0
US dollar value of one euro1 1.11 1.13 1.20 1.18 1.18
  –0.2 2.1 6.2 –1.2 0.0
1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.          
2 Broad nominal effective exchange rate.          
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

13. CURRENT AND DECEMBER 2017 FORECAST
  2017 2018f 2019f 2020f
GDP, % change 2.6 2.9 2.2 1.7
   December 2017 3.1 2.5 1.6 1.2
Inflation (HICP), % 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.5
   December 2017 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5
Current account, % of GDP 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.9
   December 2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
General government net lending, % of GDP –0.6 –0.8 –0.7 –0.4
   December 2017 –1.1 –1.4 –1.0 –0.7
General government debt (EDP), % of GDP 61.4 60.2 59.5 58.3
   December 2017 61.8 61.3 61.4 60.8
Unemployment rate, % 8.6 8.0 7.7 7.5
   December 2017 8.6 8.2 7.9 7.6
Source: Bank of Finland.    
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