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Bank of Finland Bulletin - Articles on the economy from the Bank of Finland

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    Forecast

    Forecast tables 2025–2028 (December 2025)

    19.12.2025

    Growth in the economy for the full year 2025 will be 0.2%. Growth will rise to 0.8% in 2026 and to 1.7% in 2027. In 2028, the final year of the forecast period, growth will level out at 1.5%.

    1. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND AT REFERENCE YEAR 2015 PRICES
    % change on previous year 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    GDP at market prices 0.4 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.5
    Imports of goods and services -0.8 1.9 5.2 2.6 2.9
    Exports of goods and services 1.8 4.1 2.4 2.7 2.7
    Private consumption -0.4 -0.1 1.1 1.9 1.9
    Public consumption 1.7 -2.0 -0.4 0.2 0.7
    Private fixed investment -7.7 -0.3 3.9 3.8 3.3
    Public fixed investment 7.7 2.3 18.3 -0.4 -2.6
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
    2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    GDP, % change 0.4 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.5
    Net exports 1.1 0.9 -1.1 0.1 -0.0
    Domestic demand excl. inventory change -0.9 -0.5 1.9 1.6 1.6
    of which Consumption 0.3 -0.6 0.4 1.0 1.1
    Investment -1.2 0.0 1.5 0.6 0.5
    Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
    1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights.
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRICE DEFLATORS
    Index 2015=100, and % change on previous year 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    GDP at market prices 120.4 122.5 125.4 128.2 131.0
    0.7 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.2
    Imports of goods and services 124.2 122.3 123.2 125.2 127.1
    -1.0 -1.5 0.7 1.6 1.6
    Exports of goods and services 121.4 120.1 121.7 124.0 126.5
    -2.6 -1.1 1.4 1.9 2.0
    Private consumption 119.2 120.7 122.4 124.5 126.9
    1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9
    Public consumption 121.4 123.9 127.9 131.9 135.1
    0.8 2.1 3.2 3.2 2.4
    Private fixed investment 127.3 127.4 128.5 130.9 133.1
    0.2 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.7
    Public fixed investment 123.5 124.0 125.5 128.2 131.1
    0.6 0.4 1.3 2.1 2.3
    Terms of trade (goods and services) 97.7 98.2 98.8 99.1 99.5
    -1.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
    EUR million and % change on previous year 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    GDP at market prices 276,006 281,256 290,287 301,901 313,323
    1.2 1.9 3.2 4.0 3.8
    Imports of goods and services 114,669 115,019 121,914 127,092 132,750
    -1.7 0.3 6.0 4.2 4.5
    Total supply 390,675 396,275 412,200 428,993 446,073
    0.3 1.4 4.0 4.1 4.0
    Exports of goods and services 115,650 119,062 123,587 129,353 135,540
    -1.0 3.0 3.8 4.7 4.8
    Consumption 213,091 214,772 220,303 228,180 236,434
    1.3 0.8 2.6 3.6 3.6
    Private 141,164 142,795 146,334 151,696 157,569
    0.7 1.2 2.5 3.7 3.9
    Public 71,927 71,977 73,969 76,483 78,866
    2.6 0.1 2.8 3.4 3.1
    Fixed investment 60,698 60,899 65,720 68,861 71,499
    -4.7 0.3 7.9 4.8 3.8
    Private 48,619 48,495 50,860 53,761 56,447
    -7.5 -0.3 4.9 5.7 5.0
    Public 12,079 12,405 14,860 15,100 15,051
    8.3 2.7 19.8 1.6 -0.3
    Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 1,236 1,541 2,590 2,600 2,600
    % of previous year's total demand 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
    Total demand 390,675 396,275 412,200 428,993 446,073
    0.3 1.4 4.0 4.1 4.0
    Total domestic demand 275,025 277,212 288,613 299,640 310,533
    0.8 0.8 4.1 3.8 3.6
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
    % in proportion to GDP at current prices 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
    Imports of goods and services 41.5 40.9 42.0 42.1 42.4
    Exports of goods and services 41.9 42.3 42.6 42.8 43.3
    Consumption 77.2 76.4 75.9 75.6 75.5
    Private 51.1 50.8 50.4 50.2 50.3
    Public 26.1 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.2
    Fixed investment 22.0 21.7 22.6 22.8 22.8
    Private 17.6 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.0
    Public 4.4 4.4 5.1 5.0 4.8
    Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8
    Total demand 141.5 140.9 142.0 142.1 142.4
    Total domestic demand 99.6 98.6 99.4 99.3 99.1
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    6. PRICES
    Index 2015=100, and % change on previous year 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2015=100 119.8 122.0 123.7 125.8 128.2
    1.0 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.9
    Harmonised index of consumer prices excl. energy and food, 2015=100 115.0 117.7 119.5 121.6 123.6
    2.2 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.6
    Consumer price index, 2015=100 122.3 122.8 123.9 126.0 128.4
    1.6 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.9
    Private consumption deflator 119.2 120.7 122.4 124.5 126.9
    1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9
    Private investment deflator 127.3 127.4 128.5 130.9 133.1
    0.2 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.7
    Exports of goods and services deflator 121.4 120.1 121.7 124.0 126.5
    -2.6 -1.1 1.4 1.9 2.0
    Imports of goods and services deflator 124.2 122.3 123.2 125.2 127.1
    -1.0 -1.5 0.7 1.6 1.6
    Value-added deflators
    Value added, gross at basic prices 120.5 122.1 124.7 127.5 130.3
    0.7 1.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
    % change on previous year 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    Whole economy
    Index of wage and salary earnings 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.3 2.6
    Compensation per employee 1.7 3.1 3.1 3.2 2.5
    Unit labour costs 0.2 2.5 3.1 2.4 1.7
    Productivity per employed person 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.8
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    8. LABOUR MARKET
    1,000 persons and % change on previous year 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)
    Employed persons 2,603.1 2,591.9 2,612.3 2,635.5 2,654.6
    -1.1 -0.4 0.8 0.9 0.7
    Unemployed persons 239.3 277.9 288.6 269.9 259.3
    16.5 16.1 3.9 -6.5 -3.9
    Labour force 2,842.4 2,869.8 2,900.9 2,905.4 2,913.9
    0.2 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.3
    Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,473.6 3,492.7 3,510.4 3,529.1 3,546.0
    0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
    Labour force participation rate, % 68.4 68.9 69.4 69.2 69.1
    Unemployment rate, % 8.4 9.7 9.9 9.3 8.9
    Employment rate (20–64-year-olds), % 76.7 76.1 76.2 76.5 76.6
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURE, BALANCE AND DEBT
    2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    % relative to GDP
    General government revenue 53.3 53.3 53.1 52.5 52.3
    General government expenditure 57.7 57.0 57.4 56.6 56.2
    General government primary expenditure 56.1 55.5 55.7 54.8 54.2
    General government interest expenditure 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9
    General government net lending -4.4 -3.7 -4.3 -4.1 -3.9
    Central government -3.7 -3.3 -4.2 -4.1 -4.0
    Local government -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9
    Social security funds 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.0
    General government primary balance -2.8 -2.2 -2.6 -2.3 -1.9
    General government structural balance¹ -3.0 -2.2 -2.9 -3.2 -3.4
    General government debt (EDP) 82.4 88.2 90.6 91.4 93.0
    Central government debt 61.4 66.4 68.9 70.0 71.7
    Tax ratio 42.2 42.1 42.1 41.8 41.6
    Current prices, EUR billion
    General government net lending -12.2 -10.4 -12.4 -12.4 -12.1
    Central government -10.2 -9.4 -12.3 -12.2 -12.6
    Local government -2.6 -2.2 -2.2 -2.3 -2.8
    Social security funds 0.6 1.2 2.1 2.2 3.2
    General government debt (EDP) 227.5 247.9 262.9 276.1 291.5
    1Based on the cyclical adjustment method used by the European System of Central Banks.
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
    EUR billion 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    Exports of goods and services (SNA)1 115.7 119.1 123.6 129.4 135.5
    Imports of goods and services (SNA)1 114.7 115.0 121.9 127.1 132.8
    Goods and services account (SNA)1 1.0 4.0 1.7 2.3 2.8
    % of GDP 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.7 0.9
    Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) -0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
    Current transfers, net -1.4 -1.7 -2.0 -2.2 -2.4
    Current account, net -1.9 3.0 0.6 1.0 1.3
    Net lending, % of GDP
    Private sector 3.7 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.3
    Public sector -4.4 -3.7 -4.3 -4.1 -3.9
    Current account, % of GDP -0.7 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
    f=forecast.
    1SNA = System of National Accounts
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    11. INTEREST RATES
    % 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    3-month Euribor1 3.6 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.3
    Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5
    1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
    f=forecast.
    Sources: European Central Bank and Bank of Finland.
    12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
    Eurosystem staff projections 2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    GDP, % change on previous year
    World (excl. euro area) 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3
    USA 2.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9
    Euro area 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4
    Japan -0.2 1.3 0.5 0.8 0.8
    Imports, % change on previous year
    World (excl. euro area) 4.3 4.4 2.0 3.1 3.1
    USA 5.8 2.5 -2.9 2.7 3.0
    Euro area -0.1 3.2 2.3 2.7 2.8
    Japan 1.0 4.2 2.1 2.4 2.4
    Index, 2015=100, and % change on previous year
    Import volume in Finnish export markets 121.5 125.8 128.4 132.2 136.0
    2.4 3.5 2.1 2.9 2.9
    Export prices of Finland's trading partners, national currencies 128.9 129.7 131.4 133.9 136.5
    1.5 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.9
    Export prices of Finland's trading partners, in EUR 125.1 123.9 124.2 126.6 129.0
    0.2 -0.9 0.2 1.9 1.9
    Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in USD 152.1 160.9 161.0 161.8 161.4
    9.2 5.7 0.1 0.5 -0.3
    Oil price, USD/barrel1 81.2 69.2 62.5 62.6 64.0
    -2.9 -14.8 -9.7 0.2 2.2
    Finland's nominal effective exchange rate2 103.0 104.7 105.8 105.8 105.8
    -1.3 -1.5 -1.1 0.0 0.0
    US dollar value of one euro3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
    0.1 4.3 2.6 0.0 0.0
    1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
    2 Broad nominal effective exchange rate, January – March 2015 = 100. The index rises as the currency depreciates. Assuming no changes in the exchange rate.
    3 Assuming no changes in the exchange rate.
    f=forecast.
    Sources: European Central Bank and Bank of Finland.
    13. Current and June 2024 forecast
    2024 2025ᶠ 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    GDP, % change 0.4 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.5
    December 2024 -0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 #N/A
    Inflation (HICP), % 1.0 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.9
    December 2024 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.8 #N/A
    Employment rate (20–64-year-olds), % 76.7 76.1 76.2 76.5 76.6
    December 2024 76.7 76.1 76.2 76.4 #N/A
    Unemployment rate, % 8.4 9.7 9.9 9.3 8.9
    December 2024 8.4 9.2 9.0 8.5 #N/A
    Current account, % of GDP -0.7 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
    December 2024 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 #N/A
    General government net lending, % of GDP -4.4 -3.7 -4.3 -4.1 -3.9
    December 2024 -4.4 -3.9 -3.8 -3.6 #N/A
    General government debt (EDP), % of GDP 82.4 88.2 90.6 91.4 93.0
    December 2024 82.1 84.9 86.7 87.9 #N/A
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.

    Key words

    forecast GDP indicators indicators inflation

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