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    Forecast

    Forecast tables for the Finnish economy in 2015–2017

    10.12.2015

    December 2015

    Source: Bank of Finland forecast December 2015.
    1. Balance of supply and demand, at reference year 2010 prices
    % change on previous year          
      2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
    GDP at market prices -1.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.7 1.0
    Imports of goods and services 0.0 0.0 -2.8 3.2 2.8
    Exports of goods and services                                   1.1 -0.7 0.1 2.1 2.7
    Private consumption -0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
    Public consumption 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.6
    Private fixed investment -7.1 -3.9 -1.1 3.3 2.8
    Public fixed investment 3.5 -0.9 -2.3 1.3 1.4
    Source: Bank of Finland forecast December 2015.
    2. Contributions to growth1
      2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
    GDP, % change -1.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.7 1.0
    Net exports 0.4 -0.3 1.1 -0.4 0.0
    Domestic demand excl. inventory change -1.1 -0.5 0.0 1.1 1.0
    of which Consumption 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5
          Investment -1.2 -0.7 -0.3 0.6 0.5
    Inventory change + statistical  discrepancy -0.4 0.4 -1.2 0.1 0.0
    1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares
      at current prices as weights.          
    Source: Bank of Finland forecast December 2015.
    3. Balance of supply and demand, price deflators
    Index, 2010 = 100 and % change on previous year
      2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
    GDP at market prices 108.4 110.1 110.7 111.8 112.9
      2.6 1.6 0.5 1.0 1.0
    Imports of goods and services 106.8 105.2 103.3 104.6 107.0
      -1.4 -1.6 -1.8 1.2 2.3
    Exports of goods and services                                   104.5 103.7 103.0 104.5 106.9
      -1.0 -0.7 -0.7 1.5 2.3
    Private consumption 108.6 110.3 110.5 111.0 112.0
      2.3 1.6 0.2 0.4 1.0
    Public consumption 111.2 112.7 114.1 115.2 116.6
      2.5 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.3
    Private fixed investment 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.1
      1.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7
    Public fixed investment 109.3 110.1 110.0 111.1 112.6
      2.0 0.8 -0.1 1.0 1.3
    Terms of trade (goods and services) 97.8 98.6 99.7 99.9 99.9
      0.4 0.8 1.1 0.3 -0.1
    Source: Bank of Finland forecast December 2015.
    4. Balance of supply and demand, at current prices
    EUR  million and % change on previous year
      2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
    GDP at market prices 202,743 205,178 206,014 209,474 213,586
      1.5 1.2 0.4 1.7 2.0
    Imports of goods and services 80,624 79,392 75,839 79,262 83,369
      -1.4 -1.5 -4.5 4.5 5.2
    Total supply 283,367 284,570 281,852 288,735 296,955
      0.6 0.4 -1.0 2.4 2.8
    Exports of goods and services                                   78,979 77,810 77,326 80,106 84,145
      0.1 -1.5 -0.6 3.6 5.0
    Consumption 161,622 164,523 165,883 167,831 170,597
      2.4 1.8 0.8 1.2 1.6
       Private 111,311 113,621 114,384 115,551 117,355
      2.0 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.6
       Public                                                       50,311 50,902 51,499 52,280 53,242
      3.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.8
    Fixed investment                                                    42,805 41,608 41,307 42,828 44,252
      -3.8 -2.8 -0.7 3.7 3.3
       Private 34,415 33,225 33,124 34,457 35,654
      -5.8 -3.5 -0.3 4.0 3.5
       Public                                                       8,390 8,383 8,183 8,371 8,598
      5.5 -0.1 -2.4 2.3 2.7
    Inventory change + statistical discrepancy -39 629 -2,664 -2,030 -2,040
    % of previous year's total demand -0.2 0.2 -1.2 0.2 0.0
    Total demand 283,367 284,570 281,852 288,735 296,955
      0.6 0.4 -1.0 2.4 2.8
    Total domestic demand 204,388 206,760 204,526 208,629 212,809
      0.8 1.2 -1.1 2.0 2.0
    Source: Bank of Finland forecast December 2015.
    5. Balance of supply and demand
    % of GDP at current prices
      2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
    GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
    Imports of goods and services 39.8 38.7 36.8 37.8 39.0
    Exports of goods and services                                   39.0 37.9 37.5 38.2 39.4
    Consumption 79.7 80.2 80.5 80.1 79.9
    Private 54.9 55.4 55.5 55.2 54.9
    Public 24.8 24.8 25.0 25.0 24.9
    Fixed investment 21.1 20.3 20.1 20.4 20.7
    Private 17.0 16.2 16.1 16.4 16.7
    Public 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0
    Inventory change + statistical discrepancy, 0.0 0.3 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0
    Total demand 139.8 138.7 136.8 137.8 139.0
    Total domestic demand 100.8 100.8 99.3 99.6 99.6
    Source: Bank of Finland forecast December 2015.
    6. Prices
    Index, 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year
      2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
    Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2005=100 120.4 121.8 121.7 122.0 123.2
      2.2 1.2 -0.1 0.3 1.0
    Consumer price index, 2005=100 118.3 119.6 119.3 119.6 120.8
      1.5 1.0 -0.2 0.2 1.0
    Private consumption deflator                                          108.6 110.3 110.5 111.0 112.0
      2.3 1.6 0.2 0.4 1.0
    Private investment deflator 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.1
      1.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7
    Exports of goods and services deflator 104.5 103.7 103.0 104.5 106.9
      -1.0 -0.7 -0.7 1.5 2.3
    Imports of goods and services deflator 106.8 105.2 103.3 104.6 107.0
      -1.4 -1.6 -1.8 1.2 2.3
    Value-added deflators                                                       
    Value-added, gross at basic prices                                        108.0 109.9 110.4 111.2 112.6
      2.5 1.7 0.4 0.8 1.2
    Private sector 106.9 108.7 108.9 109.7 111.1
      2.4 1.7 0.2 0.8 1.2
     Public sector 112.8 114.8 116.4 117.3 118.8
      2.8 1.7 1.4 0.8 1.3
    Source: Bank of Finland forecast December 2015.
    7. Wages and productivity
    % change on previous year
      2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
    Whole economy          
       Index of wage and salary earnings 2.1 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.3
       Compensation per employee 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.5
       Unit labour costs 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.1 1.0
       Labour productivity per employed person -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5
    Source: Bank of Finland forecast December 2015.
    8. Labour market
    1,000 persons and % change on previous year
      2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
    Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)          
    Employed persons 2,457 2,447 2,440 2,450 2,461
      -1.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.4
    Unemployed persons 219 232 252 247 245
      6.1 5.8 8.6 -2.0 -0.6
    Labour force 2,676 2,679 2,692 2,697 2,706
      -0.5 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.3
    Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,508 3,491 3,477 3,475 3,470
      -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1
    Labour force participation rate, %                                                      65.5 65.4 65.6 65.6 65.4
    Unemployment rate, % 8.2 8.7 9.4 9.2 9.1
    Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 68.5 68.3 68.2 68.5 68.9
    Source: Bank of Finland forecast December 2015.
    9. General government revenue, expenditure, balance and debt
    % of GDP          
      2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
    General government revenue 55.0 54.9 55.6 55.7 55.8
    General government expenditure 57.6 58.3 58.8 58.6 58.6
    General government primary expenditure 56.3 57.0 57.6 57.5 57.5
    General government interest expenditure 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
    General government net lending -2.5 -3.3 -3.2 -2.9 -2.7
    Central government -3.6 -3.9 -3.2 -3.1 -3.0
    Local government -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8
    Social security funds 1.8 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1
    General government primary balance -1.3 -2.1 -2.0 -1.8 -1.6
    General government debt (EDP) 55.6 59.3 62.8 65.7 68.1
    Central government debt 44.3 46.4 49.2 51.5 53.6
    Tax ratio 43.8 43.9 44.5 44.7 44.8
    Source: Bank of Finland forecast December 2015.
    10. Balance of payments
    EUR million          
      2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
    Exports of goods and services (SNA) 78,979 77,810 77,326 80,106 84,145
    Imports of goods and services (SNA) 80,624 79,392 75,839 79,262 83,369
    Goods and services account (SNA) -1,645 -1,582 1,488 844 776
    % of GDP -0.8 -0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4
    Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 664 2,055 452 672 742
    Current transfers, net -2,381 -2,406 -2,233 -2,038 -2,083
    Current account, net -3,363 -1,932 -293 -522 -564
    Net lending, % of GDP          
    Private sector 0.9 2.4 3.1 2.6 2.5
    Public sector -2.5 -3.3 -3.2 -2.9 -2.7
    Current account, % of GDP -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3
    Source: Bank of Finland forecast December 2015.
    11. Interest rates
    %          
      2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
    3-month Euribor1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1
    Average interest rate on new loan drawdowns2 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.0
    Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5
    Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
    Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 1.9 1.4 0.7 1.0 1.3
    1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
    2 Finnish credit institutions’ loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts, credit card credits
    and repurchase agreements).
    3 Finnish credit institutions’ deposits from households and non-financial corporations.
    Source: Bank of Finland forecast December 2015.
    12. International environment
    Eurosystem staff projections 
      2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
    GDP, % change on previous year          
    World 3.2 3.4 2.9 3.4 3.7
    USA 1.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.6
    Euro area -0.3 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.9
    Japan 1.6 -0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6
    Imports, % change on previous year          
    World  2.5 3.5 1.5 3.5 4.2
    USA 1.1 3.8 5.1 4.3 4.6
    Euro area 1.4 4.5 5.3 4.8 5.3
    Japan 3.0 7.3 1.3 2.5 1.8
    Index, 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year          
    Import volume in Finnish export markets 113.1 116.1 116.2 119.5 124.2
      2.4 2.7 0.1 2.8 3.9
    Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, national currencies 102.2 103.0 103.4 105.5 108.5
      -1.0 0.7 0.4 2.0 2.9
    Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, in euro 104.8 104.7 109.4 112.3 115.5
      -2.9 -0.1 4.5 2.6 2.9
    Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 93.6 89.0 71.1 61.6 64.4
      -2.7 -4.9 -20.1 -13.3 4.5
    Oil price, USD per barrel1 108.8 98.9 53.8 52.2 57.5
      -2.8 -9.1 -45.6 -2.9 10.1
    Finland's nominal competitiveness indicator1,2 101.3 102.2 98.2 97.5 97.5
      1.5 0.9 -3.9 -0.6 0.0
    US dollar value of one euro1 1.33 1.33 1.11 1.09 1.09
      3.4 0.0 -16.8 -1.6 0.0
    1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
    2 Narrow plus euro area, 1999Q1 = 100          
    Source: Bank of Finland forecast December 2015.
    13. Current and June 2015 forecast
      2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
    GDP, % change -0.4 -0.1 0.7 1.0
       June 2015 -0.1 0.2 1.2 1.3
    Inflation (HICP), % 1.2 -0.1 0.3 1.0
       June 2015 1.2 0.2 1.0 1.5
    Current account, % of GDP -0.9 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3
       June 2015 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6
    General government net lending, % of GDP -3.3 -3.2 -2.9 -2.7
       June 2015 -3.2 -3.1 -3.1 -3.0
    General government debt (EDP), % of GDP 59.3 62.8 65.7 68.1
       June 2015 59.3 62.5 65.1 67.3
    Unemployment rate, % 8.7 9.4 9.2 9.1
       June 2015 8.7 9.1 8.9 8.6
             

    Key words

    economic situation Finland forecast