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This Saturday 24 February 2024 marks the second anniversary of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Along with the human suffering and displacement, war has scarred Ukraine’s economy.

Almost all forecasters inside and outside of Russia foresaw a much deeper contraction, reflecting the fact that the new packages of Western sanctions and Russia’s actions were unprecedented.

Converting data into useful information is one of the strengths of the Bank of Finland and the Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority (FIN-FSA). The Bank of Finland and the FIN-FSA have introduced a joint centre of excellence for advanced data science – the Analytics Center of Excellence, or ACE for short.

A wide coalition of countries have imposed economic sanctions on Russia for its brutal aggression against Ukraine. The sanctions regime has impaired – but not exhausted – Russia’s financial and technological ability to make war.

In 2023 sanctions continue to hurt Russia’s economy. Many businesses have had to adjust to using inferior-quality components or paying higher prices for traditional inputs.

Key aims of the sanctions are to limit its financial and military capabilities to wage war.

Ukraine has suffered most from Russia’s illegal war of aggression launched a year ago. Besides the humanitarian emergency, the war Russia started has been catastrophic for the Ukrainian economy.

With India’s ever-increasing importance in the global economy, Europe’s central banks and other key institutions need to sharpen their focus on India. The International Relations Committee of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) established an informal India expert network in 2021.

Russia’s oil exports have decreased only marginally in volume since it began the war in Ukraine. While the export volume to countries of the European Union has fallen somewhat, Russia has found new markets in India, China and Türkiye.

Russia’s government budget plan that covers all budget levels in 2022−2025 contains optimism. Revenue estimates are based on a relatively benign economic forecast, deficits have been set low, and expenditures are seen to grow very weakly in real terms despite the recession.

Russia’s war in Ukraine is, above all, a massive human tragedy and an assault on Ukraine’s economy and society. But Russia, too, will end up paying a high price for its cruel decision to wage war.

Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine has affected the Russian economy through various channels. There has been a substantial decline in imports due to the heightened uncertainty and the international sanctions prompted by the war.

For previous experiences of stagflation we can turn to the 1970s. There are a number of reasons, however, why 2022 will not be a rerun of 1974.

Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine is bringing unimaginable destruction to the lives of Ukrainians as well as to Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine urgently needs our assistance, in many forms. At the same time, however, we need to understand how the war affects the Russian economy.

Economic activity in India has returned to pre-pandemic levels. The recovery remains uneven, however, as the pandemic is still ongoing and continues to influence behaviour.

Will China, the world’s second largest economy, come to rescue Russia?

In the early morning of February 24 Russian military invaded Ukraine. This violation of international law will result in widespread human suffering and economic dislocation.

Adaptation to changing circumstances has been one of the hallmarks of the Unit’s – the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) – work.

The global economy and global trade flows have been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. The trade collapse in the second quarter of 2020 was even more severe than during the trough of the global financial crisis in 2009.

Should monetary policy concern itself with financial stability? If yes, how should it do so?