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Analysis

Assessment of Public Finances

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Financial Stability Assessment

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Monetary Policy Review

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51 charts

Effects of economic restructuring on the Chinese economy – deviations from the baseline

A one-off decline in the consumer price index triggers no decline in inflation expectations

Inflation swaps change differently in response to a decline in the consumer price index

Price developments in inflation swaps at the turn of 2015–2016

Different post-recession paths for GDP

The ‘Great Recession’ compared with earlier recessions

Growth rate lowered by ‘Great Recession’

Growth rate lowered by ‘Great Recession’

Labour productivity changed by the ‘Great Recession’

Labour productivity changed by the ‘Great Recession’

In earlier recessions total factor productivity typically recovered

Labour volume and total factor productivity growth sluggish since the ‘Great Recession’

Total factor productivity growth weak since the financial crisis

Total factor productivity development absent also in more rapidly recovered economies

Euro area inflation and growth prospects have faded

Various concepts of the natural rate of interest differ

Euro area natural rate of interest has declined

Forecasting ability of oil futures not particularly good

EIA estimate: balance will be restored in oil* supply and demand in 2017

Development of Spanish and Italian loans to non-financial corporations pushed down total euro area figures