Alternative scenario: Core inflation could be higher than anticipated in the immediate years ahead
A wage-price spiral may occur in which prices and wages rise and ultimately GDP growth slows down.
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Alternative scenario: Russia’s war in Ukraine could lead to a recession in Finland
Russia’s war in Ukraine threatens to push Finland and the entire euro area economy into recession. Disruptions in energy availability and supply chains may turn out to be more severe than anticipated, and market rates could rise more rapidly than expected.
The depths of the COVID-19 crisis, and the recovery
In the Bank of Finland forecast, the COVID-19 crisis is not expected to cause such a deep recession as experienced in the financial crisis, and recovery will be faster. The virus could, however, leave long-term scars on e.g. employment, the capital stock and productivity.
Investment weakened by uncertainty and the structure of the Finnish economy
Global uncertainties are weakening investment growth in Finland. A similar effect is being exerted by structural factors in the domestic economy.
What factors influence house prices and residential construction?
Abundant construction in the Helsinki metropolitan area has put a brake on apartment prices.
The output gap has closed; Finland's economy at cyclical peak
Output is growing faster than its potential and the Finnish economy is expected to remain at its cyclical peak during 2018–2020.
Estimation of structural unemployment important, but complicated
In both the United States and the euro area, economic growth has picked up and the labour market has strengthened without the build-up of significant wage and price pressures. This raises the question as to how far the economy can still be from its potential output.
ECB’s expanded asset purchase programme has supported growth in Finland
The expanded asset purchase programme has also had a significant effect on price developments: in its absence, inflation in 2016 would have been much slower.