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Forecast tables

Forecast tables for 2020–2022 (June 2020)

The Finnish economy will contract by around 7% this year and grow around 3% per annum over the next 2 years. The forecast contains a large degree of uncertainty – the contraction could be only 5% or as much as 11%, depending on how the pandemic develops. See forecast tables for the Finnish economy in 2020–2022 (June 2020).

 

June 2020 

1. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, VOLUMES, AT REFERENCE YEAR 2010 PRICES
Volume, % change on previous year
  2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
GDP at market prices 1.6 1.0 –6.9 3.0 2.9
Imports of goods and services 5.5 2.2 –9.4 2.4 6.8
Exports of goods and services 1.7 7.2 –15.8 4.4 7.0
Private consumption 1.7 1.0 –6.4 4.6 3.4
Public consumption 2.1 0.9 5.5 0.1 0.1
Private fixed investment 3.5 –1.0 –12.4 –1.1 6.0
Public fixed investment 5.0 0.3 6.0 –0.3 0.4
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.   

 

2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
  2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
GDP, % change 1.6 1.0 –6.9 3.0 2.9
Net exports –1.4 1.9 –2.6 0.7 0.0
Domestic demand excl. inventory change 2.3 0.5 –4.2 2.3 2.9
of which Consumption 1.5 0.7 –2.1 2.5 1.8
         Investment 0.9 –0.2 –2.2 –0.2 1.0
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.7 –1.4 0.0 0.1 0.0
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights.
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND. PRICE DEFLATORS     
Index 2010 = 100. and % change on previous year      
  2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
GDP at market prices 114.9 117.0 117.3 118.4 120.5
  1.8 1.8 0.3 0.9 1.8
Imports of goods and services 105.1 105.4 101.6 102.6 103.9
  3.4 0.3 –3.6 1.0 1.2
Exports of goods and services 107.3 106.6 103.9 104.4 105.9
  4.2 –0.7 –2.5 0.4 1.5
Private consumption 113.1 114.3 114.6 115.4 117.1
  1.2 1.1 0.2 0.8 1.4
Public consumption 113.7 117.0 117.6 119.1 121.5
  1.4 2.9 0.5 1.3 2.0
Private fixed investment 116.6 119.8 117.1 118.6 121.1
  2.6 2.8 –2.3 1.3 2.0
Public fixed investment 115.2 117.1 117.7 119.2 121.0
  2.0 1.6 0.5 1.3 1.5
Terms of trade (goods and services) 102.1 101.1 102.3 101.7 102.0
  0.8 –1.0 1.1 –0.6 0.3
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
EUR million and % change on previous year          
  2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
GDP at market prices  233,619  240,078  224,189  232,995  244,144
   3.4  2.8  –6.6  3.9  4.8
Imports of goods and services 92,499  94,807  82,818  85,614  92,521 
  9.0  2.5  –12.6  3.4  8.1 
Total supply 326,118  334,885  307,007  318,609  336,666 
  5.0  2.7  –8.3  3.8  5.7 
Exports of goods and services 90,174  95,975  78,743  82,582  89,674 
  6.0  6.4  –18.0  4.9  8.6 
Consumption 177,129  181,711  177,232  184,521  191,849 
  3.1  2.6  –2.5  4.1  4.0 
  Private 123,740  126,256  118,433  124,890  130,948 
  3.0  2.0  –6.2  5.5  4.9 
  Public 53,389  55,455  58,799  59,631  60,901 
  3.5  3.9  6.0  1.4  2.1 
Fixed investment 55,819  56,816  50,720  50,894  54,370 
  6.3  1.8  –10.7  0.3  6.8 
  Private 45,956  46,760  40,006  40,075  43,351 
  6.2  1.7  –14.4  0.2  8.2 
  Public 9,863  10,056  10,715  10,819  11,020 
  7.0  2.0  6.6  1.0  1.9 
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 2 997  383  311  612  772 
% of previous year's total demand 0.5  –0.8  0.0  0.1  0.1 
Total demand 326,118  334,885  307,007  318,609  336,666 
  5.0  2.7  –8.3  3.8  5.7 
Total domestic demand 235,944  238,910  228,264  236,026  246,992 
  4.6  1.3  –4.5  3.4  4.6 
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND     
% in proportion to GDP at current prices    
  2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0  100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 39.6 39.5 36.9 36.7 37.9
Exports of goods and services 38.6 40.0 35.1 35.4 36.7
Consumption 75.8 75.7 79.1 79.2 78.6
   Private 53.0 52.6 52.8 53.6 53.6
   Public 22.9 23.1 26.2 25.6 24.9
Fixed investment 23.9 23.7 22.6 21.8 22.3
   Private 19.7 19.5 17.8 17.2 17.8
   Public 4.2 4.2 4.8 4.6 4.5
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3
Total demand 139.6 139.5 136.9 136.7 137.9
Total domestic demand 101.0 99.5 101.8 101.3 101.2
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

6. PRICES
Index 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year
  2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2015 = 100 102.4 103.6 103.7 104.5 105.8
  1.2 1.1 0.2 0.7 1.3
Consumer price index, 2015 = 100 102.2 103.3 103.3 104.0 105.4
  1.1 1.0 0.1 0.7 1.3
Private consumption deflator 113.1 114.3 114.6 115.4 117.1
  1.2 1.1 0.2 0.8 1.4
Private investment deflator 116.6 119.8 117.1 118.6 121.1
  2.6 2.8 –2.3 1.3 2.0
Exports of goods and services deflator 107.3 106.6 103.9 104.4 105.9
  4.2 –0.7 –2.5 0.4 1.5
Imports of goods and services deflator 105.1 105.4 101.6 102.6 103.9
  3.4 0.3 –3.6 1.0 1.2
Value-added deflators          
Value-added, gross at basic prices 114.8 117.1 117.6 118.9 121.0
  1.8 1.9 0.4 1.1 1.8
     Private sector 115.0 116.8 117.2 118.5 120.5
  1.8 1.6 0.3 1.1 1.7
     Public sector 113.9 118.0 118.9 120.4 122.8
  1.6 3.6 0.7 1.3 2.0
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY     
% change on previous year    
  2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
Whole economy          
     Index of wage and salary earnings 1.7 2.4 1.8 2.5 2.0
     Compensation per employee 1.2 1.6 –0.5 5.4 2.2
     Unit labour costs 2.1 1.7 3.9 1.8 0.1
     Labour productivity per employed person –0.9 –0.1 –4.2 3.5 2.1
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

8. LABOUR MARKET     
1.000 persons and % change on previous year
  2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)          
Employed persons 2 538 2 567 2 495 2 483 2 503
  2.6 1.1 –2.8 –0.5 0.8
Unemployed persons 202 184 247 255 240
  –13.8 –8.7 34.0 3.4 –5.8
Labour force 2 740 2 751 2 742 2 739 2 744
  1.2 0.4 –0.3 –0.1 0.2
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3 439 3 428 3 422 3 415 3 411
  –0.4 –0.3 –0.2 –0.2 –0.1
Labour force participation rate, % 66.4 66.6 66.5 66.6 66.9
Unemployment rate, % 7.4 6.7 9.0 9.3 8.8
Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 71.7 72.5 70.8 70.6 71.2
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE. EXPENDITURE. BALANCE AND DEBT
  2018  2019  2020f 2021f 2022f
% of GDP            
General government revenue 52.5 52.2 52.3 53.1 52.7
General government expenditure 53.4 53.3 60.3 58.0 56.5
General government primary expenditure 52.5 52.4 59.5 57.2 55.7
General government interest expenditure 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7
General government net lending –0.9 –1.1 –8.0 –4.9 –3.8
Central government net lending –1.2 –1.2 –5.7 –3.1 –2.3
Local government net lending –0.9 –1.2 –2.1 –2.0 –2.0
Social security funds 1.3 1.2 –0.2 0.3 0.4
General government primary balance 0.1 –0.3 –7.1 –4.1 –3.1
General government debt (consolidated. EDP) 59.2 59.4 71.3 73.3 74.5
Central government debt 44.9 44.3 53.3 54.1 54.3
Tax ratio 42.4 42.1 42.1 43.1 42.8
Current prices, EUR billion          
General government net lending –2.0 –2.7 –17.9 –11.4 –9.3
Central government net lending –2.8 –2.8 –12.7 –7.3 –5.5
Local government net lending –2.1 –2.9 –4.7 –4.7 –4.8
Social security funds 2.9 2.9 –0.5 0.6 1.0
General government debt (consolidated. EDP) 138.412 142.507 159,.003 170.8651 181.9764
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS     
EUR billion     
  2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 90.2 96.0 78.7 82.6 89.7
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 92.5 94.8 82.8 85.6 92.5
Goods and services account (SNA) –2.3 1.2 –4.1 –3.0 –2.8
     % to GDP –1.0 0.5 –1.8 –1.3 –1.2
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 0.9 –0.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
Current transfers, net –2.3 –2.4 –2.4 –2.6 –2.7
Current account, net –3.8 –18.1 –5.0 –4.4 –4.3
Net lending, % to GDP              
     Private sector –0.8 0.4 5.7 3.0 2.0
     Public sector –0.9 –1.1 –8.0 –4.9 –3.8
Current account, % to GDP –1.6 –0.8 –2.3 –1.9 –1.8
Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.    

 

11. INTEREST RATES     
%     
  2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
3-month Euribor1 –0.3 –0.4 –0.4 –0.4 –0.4 
Average interest rate on new loan drawdowns2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3
1 Tehnical assumption derived from market expectations.          
2 Finnish credit institutions' loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts. credit card credits and repurchase agreements).    
3 Finnish credit institutions' deposits from households and non-financial corporations.          
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
The Eurosystem staff projections    
  2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
Real GDP, volume, % change on previous year          
World 2.9 0.9 –4.5 6.0 4.8
USA 2.9 2.3 –6.4 3.6 2.1
Euro area 1.9 1.2 –8.7 5.2 3.3
Japan 0.3 0.7 –5.5 2.5 1.08656
Real imports, volume, % change on previous year              
World 4.6 –0.3 –12.9 8.0 4.3
USA 4.4 1.0 –17.7 10.2 3.8
Euro area 2.7 3.9 –12.0 7.4 5.3
Japan 3.7 –0.6 –11.7 3.9 1.4
Index, 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year              
Import volume in Finnish export markets 112.8 114.7 98.5 107.2 112.7
  3.7 1.6 –14.1 8.8 5.1
Export prices of Finland's competitors (excl. oil), in national currencies 106.4 107.7 105.4 106.7 109.2
  5.3 1.2 –2.1 1.2 2.4
Export prices of Finland's industrial competitors (excl. oil), in euro 99.7 101.3 97.6 98.4 100.8
  1.4 1.6 –3.7 0.9 2.4
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 124.8 124.2 113.7 117.3 121.6
  5.6 –0.5 –8.5 3.2 3.7
Oil price, USD per barrel1 108.1 97.4 54.8 56.6 61.9
  30.6 –9.9 –43.7 3.2 9.5
Finland's nominal competitiveness indicator2 107.5 107.0 108.8 109.1 109.1
  3.8 –0.4 1.6 0.3 0.0
US dollar value of one euro1 1.18 1.12 1.09 1.08 1.08
  4.5 –5.2 –2.8 –0.5 0.0
1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.           
2 Narrow, supplemented with euro area countries, January–March 1999 = 100.           
Sources: Bank of Finland and European Central Bank.     

 

13. CURRENT AND DECEMBER 2019 FORECAST
  2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
GDP, % change 1.0 –6.9 3.0 2.9
December 2019 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.3
Inflation (HICP), % 1.1 0.2 0.7 1.3
December 2019 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6
Current account, % to GDP –0.8 –2.3 –1.9 –1.8
December 2019 –1.3 –1.3 –1.1 –0.9
General government net lending, % to GDP –1.1 –8.0 –4.9 –3.8
December 2019 –1.0 –1.5 –1.5 –1.5
General government debt (EDP), % to GDP 59.4 71.3 73.3 74.5
December 2019 58.8 59.1 60.1 60.8
Unemployment rate, % 6.7 9.0 9.3 8.8
December 2019 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.4
Employment rate, 15–64-year-olds, % 72.5 70.8 70.6 71.2
December 2019 72.5 72.7 73.0 73.4
Source: Bank of Finland.    

 

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