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June 2016

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2016.
1.Balance of supply and demand, at reference year 2010 prices
% change on previous year
  2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
GDP at market prices -0.7 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.0
Imports of goods and services 0.0 -0.4 2.7 2.5 2.0
Exports of goods and services                                  -0.9 0.6 0.7 2.4 2.5
Private consumption 0.6 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.7
Public consumption -0.3 -0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2
Private fixed investment -3.1 -1.0 4.7 3.6 2.6
Public fixed investment -0.6 -1.2 2.3 1.6 -0.5

 

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2016.
2. Contributions to growth1
  2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
GDP, % change -0.7 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.0
Net exports -0.4 0.4 -0.7 -0.1 0.2
Domestic demand excl. inventory change -0.3 0.4 1.9 1.1 0.9
of which Consumption 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.4
      Investment -0.6 -0.2 0.9 0.7 0.4
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares
  at current prices as weights.          

 

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2016.
3. .Balance of supply and demand, price deflators
Index, 2010 = 100 and % change on previous year  
  2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
GDP at market prices 110.1 110.5 110.6 111.4 112.5
  1.7 0.4 0.1 0.7 1.0
Imports of goods and services 104.8 101.5 100.3 103.1 105.4
  -1.6 -3.2 -1.2 2.7 2.3
Exports of goods and services                                  103.6 102.6 101.5 103.8 105.9
  -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 2.3 2.0
Private consumption 110.5 110.7 111.2 111.8 112.8
  1.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Public consumption 112.3 113.5 114.7 115.8 117.3
  1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.3
Private fixed investment 108.9 110.2 111.8 113.3 115.3
  0.5 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.8
Public fixed investment 110.2 109.6 111.2 112.7 114.0
  0.9 -0.5 1.4 1.3 1.2
Terms of trade (goods and services) 98.8 101.1 101.1 100.7 100.4
  0.8 2.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.3

 

 

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2016.
4. Balance of supply and demand, at current prices
EUR million and % change on previous year
  2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
GDP at market prices 205,268 207,220 209,694 213,359 217,806
  0.9 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.1
Imports of goods and services 79,462 76,627 77,796 81,958 85,546
  -1.6 -3.6 1.5 5.3 4.4
Total supply 284,730 283,847 287,491 295,317 303,352
  0.2 -0.3 1.3 2.7 2.7
Exports of goods and services                                  77,600 77,284 76,939 80,624 84,285
  -1.7 -0.4 -0.4 4.8 4.5
Consumption 164,471 166,507 169,606 171,696 174,350
  1.8 1.2 1.9 1.2 1.5
   Private 113,690 115,592 117,898 119,318 121,187
  2.2 1.7 2.0 1.2 1.6
   Public                                                       50,781 50,915 51,708 52,378 53,163
  0.9 0.3 1.6 1.3 1.5
Fixed investment                                                    42,197 42,115 44,516 46,558 48,276
  -2.1 -0.2 5.7 4.6 3.7
   Private 33,729 33,790 35,874 37,656 39,310
  -2.6 0.2 6.2 5.0 4.4
   Public                                                       8,468 8,325 8,642 8,902 8,966
  0.3 -1.7 3.8 3.0 0.7
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 462 -2,059 -3,570 -3,560 -3,560
% of previous year's total demand 0.0 -0.9 -0.5 0.0 0.0
Total demand 284,730 283,847 287,491 295,317 303,352
  0.2 -0.3 1.3 2.7 2.7
Total domestic demand 207,130 206,563 210,552 214,694 219,066
  1.0 -0.3 1.9 2.0 2.0

 

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2016.
5. Balance of supply and demand
% of GDP at current prices
  2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 38.7 37.0 37.1 38.4 39.3
Exports of goods and services                                  37.8 37.3 36.7 37.8 38.7
Consumption 80.1 80.4 80.9 80.5 80.0
Private 55.4 55.8 56.2 55.9 55.6
Public 24.7 24.6 24.7 24.5 24.4
Fixed investment 20.6 20.3 21.2 21.8 22.2
Private 16.4 16.3 17.1 17.6 18.0
Public 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.1
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy, 0.2 -1.0 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6
Total demand 138.7 137.0 137.1 138.4 139.3
Total domestic demand 100.9 99.7 100.4 100.6 100.6

 

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2016.
6. Prices
Index, 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year
  2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2005=100 121.8 121.6 121.9 122.9 124.1
  1.2 -0.2 0.2 0.8 1.0
Consumer price index, 2005=100 119.6 119.3 119.4 120.2 121.5
  1.0 -0.2 0.0 0.7 1.0
Private consumption deflator                                          110.5 110.7 111.2 111.8 112.8
  1.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Private investment deflator 108.9 110.2 111.8 113.3 115.3
  0.5 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.8
Exports of goods and services deflator 103.6 102.6 101.5 103.8 105.9
  -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 2.3 2.0
Imports of goods and services deflator 104.8 101.5 100.3 103.1 105.4
  -1.6 -3.2 -1.2 2.7 2.3
Value-added deflators                                             
Value-added, gross at basic prices                                        109.9 110.2 111.0 111.7 112.8
  1.8 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.9
Private sector 108.8 109.0 109.6 110.2 111.1
  1.8 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.8
Public sector 114.2 115.4 116.5 117.8 119.5
  1.6 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.5

 

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2016.
7. Wages and productivity
% change on previous year
  2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
Whole economy
   Index of wage and salary earnings 1.4 1.2 1.3 0.8 1.2
   Compensation per employee 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.9 1.3
   Unit labour costs 1.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8
   Labour productivity per employed person -0.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.5

 

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2016.
8. Labour market
1,000 persons and % change on previous year
  2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)        
Employed persons 2,447 2,437 2,447 2,463 2,477
  -0.4 -0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6
Unemployed persons 232 252 247 244 241
  5.8 8.7 -2.0 -1.1 -1.6
Labour force 2,679 2,690 2,694 2,708 2,718
  0.1 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4
Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,491 3,476 3,465 3,453 3,445
  -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2
Labour force participation rate, %                                                      65.4 65.6 65.6 65.7 65.8
Unemployment rate, % 8.7 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.9
Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 68.3 68.1 68.4 68.8 69.1

 

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2016.
9. General government revenue, expenditure, balance and debt
% of GDP
  2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
General government revenue 54.9 55.5 55.9 56.0 55.9
General government expenditure 58.1 58.3 58.5 58.4 58.2
General government primary expenditure 56.9 57.0 57.4 57.2 57.0
General government interest expenditure 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
General government net lending -3.2 -2.7 -2.6 -2.4 -2.3
Central government -3.8 -3.1 -3.0 -2.9 -2.5
Local government -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8
Social security funds 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0
General government primary balance -1.9 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2
General government debt (EDP) 59.3 63.1 66.0 68.4 70.2
Central government debt 46.3 48.2 50.6 52.6 54.1
Tax ratio 43.9 44.5 45.0 45.0 45.0

 

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2016.
10. Balance of payments
EUR million
  2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 77,600 77,284 76,939 80,624 84,285
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 79,462 76,627 77,796 81,958 85,546
Goods and services account (SNA) -1,862 657 -858 -1,334 -1,261
% of GDP -0.9 0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 2,335 1,777 2,268 2,638 2,660
Current transfers, net -2406 -2147 -1882 -1921 -1965
Current account, net -1,932 287 -1,262 -1,649 -1,513
Net lending, % of GDP
Private sector 2.2 2.9 2.0 1.6 1.6
Public sector -3.2 -2.7 -2.6 -2.4 -2.3
Current account, % of GDP -0.9 0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7

 

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2016.
11. Interest rates
%      
  2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
3-month Euribor1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
Average interest rate on new loan drawdowns2 2.4 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.8
Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4
Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.9
1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2 Finnish credit institutions’ loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts, credit card credits
and repurchase agreements).
3 Finnish credit institutions’ deposits from households and non-financial corporations.

 

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2016.
12. International environment
Eurosystem staff projections
  2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
GDP, % change on previous year      
World 3.3 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.5
USA 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.5 2.3
Euro area 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7
Japan -0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.4 0.4
Imports, % change on previous year      
World 3.5 1.9 2.5 4.0 4.3
USA 3.8 4.9 2.0 5.0 5.2
Euro area 4.5 6.0 4.7 4.7 4.7
Japan 7.2 0.2 0.8 2.5 2.8
Index, 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year          
Import volume in Finnish export markets 113.0 113.1 115.7 120.0 124.9
  2.7 0.1 2.3 3.6 4.1
Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, national currencies 102.8 102.3 101.7 104.9 107.5
  0.5 -0.5 -0.6 3.1 2.5
Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, in euro 104.5 108.6 107.3 110.5 113.3
  -0.3 3.9 -1.2 3.0 2.5
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 89.0 70.0 66.4 68.6 71.9
  -4.9 -21.3 -5.2 3.4 4.7
Oil price, USD per barrel1 98.9 52.4 42.5 48.0 50.3
  -9.1 -47.1 -18.8 12.9 4.6
Finland's nominal competitiveness indicator1,2 102.2 97.8 98.4 98.5 98.5
  0.9 -4.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
US dollar value of one euro1 1.33 1.11 1.13 1.14 1.14
  0.0 -16.5 2.1 1.0 0.0
1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
2 Narrow plus euro area, 1999Q1 = 100          

 

Source: Bank of Finland forecast June 2016.
13. Current and December 2015 forecast
  2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
GDP, % change 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.0
December 2015 -0.1 0.7 1.0  
Inflation (HICP), % -0.2 0.2 0.8 1.0
December 2015 -0.1 0.3 1.0  
Current account, % of GDP 0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7
December 2015 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3  
General government net lending, % of GDP -2.7 -2.6 -2.4 -2.3
December 2015 -3.2 -2.9 -2.7  
General government debt (EDP), % of GDP 63.1 66.0 68.4 70.2
December 2015 62.8 65.7 68.1  
Unemployment rate, % 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.9
December 2015 9.4 9.2 9.1  

 

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